Breakingviews - Georgia vote may give companies half-full glass

  • 1/6/2021
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U.S. companies needn’t worry about Georgia’s Tuesday vote. Democrats may eke out a Senate majority after one of their candidates won the special runoff election, and the other is ahead in a race still too close to call. The slim margin would hand more power to moderates like West Virginia’s Joe Manchin on issues like green energy and taxes, offsetting greater regulatory scrutiny of business. Corporate America may just have avoided the worst. A Democratic triumph would leave the party with no room for error. The win by Raphael Warnock and possible victory for Jon Ossoff would split the Senate 50-50, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris casting tiebreaking votes once she takes office. That would give the party a leg up when it comes to confirming presidential appointees, but most policy plans will need to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold. One crucial workaround would affect tax policy. Biden wants to raise corporate rates from 21% to 28% and increase income taxes for those making more than $400,000. Such a plan could fall under budget reconciliation, which calls for simple majority approval if the legislation doesn’t increase the deficit over the budget window, which is usually 10 years. That’s how Donald Trump passed his 2017 tax cuts. That’s where moderates like Manchin would play a key role. He was one of the few Democrats that Trump lobbied on his tax-cut plan though the senator ended up opposing it, partly out of worries of rising government debt. But he has also expressed wariness about raising taxes during economic turmoil. He’s also opposed to liberal policies like the Green New Deal and Medicare for All. ADVERTISEMENT Biden could, perhaps, push a modest tax plan through in which rates don’t go as high. Getting the Senate to back more environmental rules will be tough given Manchin is from coal-producing state. One area where corporations would feel pain is in Senate committees. Having power means Democrats control panels that oversee Wall Street, Silicon Valley and the pharmaceutical industry. The instances of CEOs being called to Congress for hearings will likely rise. Still, companies will probably sidestep liberal pushes like tech breakups or imposing a single-payer healthcare system run by the government. An infrastructure push could also attract Republican moderates like Maine’s Susan Collins. That makes the Democratic-controlled Senate tolerable for America’s corporate chiefs.

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