Along with the four well-known seasons of the year, in the Middle East we also have what might be called the “Will there be war with Iran?” season. Every year, or sometimes several times a year, we go through this geopolitical season. Mainly due to the Tehran regime’s actions, the region and the world are confronted with it. We know it is upon us when all Middle East analysts take out their old notes — like they would their coats and gloves for winter — to analyze yet again the risks of war between Iran and the US. This has been a constant for longer than one can remember. Currently it is linked to what is called “heightened tensions” and any possible Iranian retaliation for the one-year anniversary of the killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. In short, this season of possible direct confrontation and war between Iran and the US comes and goes a little like the flu season. We just have to wait for it to pass. In this interaction, the Iranian regime is very aware of the red lines and how to get close to them. It also knows where these red lines are when a Republican is in the White House and when a Democrat is in power; and it is aware of where the Senate stands. To a certain extent, US domestic politics also impact who Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei chooses to be president of Iran. There is no difference between a hawk and a so-called dove, it is always about continuing the regime’s plan, gaining time, and continuing to bite off pieces of the Middle East. In the current “Iran war” season, it is interesting to note that Tehran has understood the rift between leading US media outlets and President Donald Trump and has been exceptionally good at using this to its advantage in terms of framing the coming dialogue with President-elect Joe Biden. In a sense, Tehran is now, through some of its lobbying affiliates in Washington, becoming successful in manipulating the narrative in its favor. War with Iran will not happen — not because of past lessons, but because the US does not want to go to war with Iran. So the “drumbeats of war” with Iran can be as loud as possible and the “coming inevitable clash” can be in all the headlines, but no war will take place. In fact, these terms and analyses have been used for decades. One of the main reasons the war with Iran will not happen is that the US and the rest of the international community are convinced that Iran is needed for balance in the Middle East. In other words, it is about keeping the balance between Arabs and Persians, Sunnis and Shiites. They consider that Iran falling apart could lead to major destabilization across the region. So the strategy has always been about containment, sometimes with references to “regime change,” which Iran has exploited well. There is also the view that this regime could change direction or that change should come from within; this is due to the fact they consider the local population widely in favor of the West while their leaders are not. Another point is the balance with Russia and China, and there is also the view that, if the planets align, Iran could prove useful to the West. In any case, war would primarily be a US or international decision, not an Iranian regime call, simply because it knows it would lose. Despite all the Iranian posturing and projections of military power, you can be sure that the legs of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and all the military and security apparatus shake in fear at the thought of a war with the US. Therefore, they have applied a different strategy throughout the region and are masters at asymmetric warfare, which now also includes cyberattacks. They do not seek direct confrontation, but rather to irritate the US and the West. By now, the Iranians understand that the US also does not want war. If one looks at the direct acts of aggression by Iranian military groups or their proxies, they resemble the actions of a child seeking his parents’ attention and reminding them he is there. They are more symbolic than a cause of true hurt. Currently, it is mostly about getting Tehran’s message across and projecting strength. It is about telling Biden that the Iranian file needs an urgent solution. Therefore, they have increased their harassment actions against oil tankers and, most recently, an Iranian government spokesman announced the restart of uranium enrichment toward a 20 percent target at the Fordow nuclear facility. To put it simply, they are saying “we can be a nuisance so get back to the nuclear deal.” The main reason for this is the need to lift US sanctions, as the regime is in desperate need of financial liquidity to support the country’s collapsing economy. This is an urgent need for the survival of the Iranian regime. Iran’s acts of aggression resemble the actions of a child seeking his parents’ attention and reminding them he is there. Khaled Abou Zahr However, these aggressions are not the most worrying Iranian actions. The most worrying are its takeover of entire Arab countries against the free will of their local populations. This is where you see the ruthlessness of the regime and its expansionist vision. This is what should worry the US and the world alike. The recent unveiling of a Soleimani monument in a Hezbollah district in Beirut is the perfect example of Tehran’s view for the country and where it will lead. It is also very symbolic of the ideological takeover of the region that the Iranian regime foresees. The coming years will be decisive for the Middle East. Regardless of US disengagement, the region’s importance goes beyond energy, as it is also a key hub for the transport of goods, people and financial flows. The real danger is not war, but that Iran is conducting a covert military nuclear program in parallel to building up its missile capabilities and will, once ready, completely take over Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, locking them into an ironclad nuclear veil. Hence, a complete shift in US policy toward Iran after all these efforts would be catastrophic. There is an urgent need to find a middle ground between overly muscular policies and systematic disengagement. In short, what is needed is a firm but inclusive US approach that would support the building of a needed “season of peace” in the Middle East. This is what Arab countries wish for; it is time Iran aspired for the same. Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi. Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view