LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) - Calling a race before the first hurdle is ill-advised. The same applies to countries scrambling to vaccinate citizens. The UK and Israel have surged ahead while France is lagging. But to inoculate a significant portion of the population, countries ideally require a centralised approach, a willing populace, and no goofs. Investors should be wary of betting on early leaders. Israel’s vaccine rollout is world-beating. The country has inoculated more than 15% of its 9 million population, nearly double the proportion of the second place United Arab Emirates. The United Kingdom and America have surged in recent weeks, but with much larger populations, have still only vaccinated under 2% of their citizens. France had by Jan. 1 only inoculated 516 people. Israel’s success may be hard to replicate. The country managed to secure early doses from Pfizer and BioNTech, having paid around $30 per inoculation, around twice the price obtained by other countries. But it also has 400 vaccine centres that can coordinate jabs in a centralised way. Israelis’ pre-existing vaccination register makes it easier for healthcare professionals to track down people to dole out a second dose. Britain lacks this system. Although it has managed to inoculate some 1.2 million people in less than a month, the UK is still building vaccination centres and recruiting staff. For now, vaccines are typically administered in a decentralised fashion via hospitals and doctor’s offices. Worse, the rapid spread of a new variant of the virus has made desperate UK politicians delay second doses in order to partially vaccinate more people. That may diminish the protection of the most vulnerable. France faces bigger problems. Despite having a centralised healthcare system, its public is fearful. While nearly 60% of citizens are now in favour of taking a jab versus 40% last week, that’s still a lot of refuseniks. It could mean lockdown measures will last even longer. Investors so far seem to like swift action. While other factors are obviously in play, Israel’s index of its top 125 companies and Britain’s FTSE 100 Index are up 6% and 5% respectively since the beginning of December, while France’s top 40 companies are only up by 2%. In time, markets will reward quality as much as quantity.
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