UPDATE 1-South African rand weakens at end of volatile week, stocks fall

  • 1/15/2021
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(Updates rand, bonds; adds stocks) JOHANNESBURG, Jan 15 (Reuters) - South Africa’s rand weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday, in line with other emerging market currencies, as currency markets turned risk-averse to the benefit of the greenback. At 1510 GMT, the rand traded at 15.3000 versus the dollar, 1.41% weaker than its previous close. The rand has had a volatile week, falling one day and firming the next, mainly taking its cue from global factors. Comments by President Cyril Ramaphosa on Monday that the country had secured more COVID-19 vaccines lifted the market’s mood temporarily, but details as to when the vaccines would arrive and who would supply them are still scarce. Next week, attention will turn to the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) first monetary policy meeting of 2021. Most analysts polled by Reuters predict the bank will keep its main lending rate on hold at 3.5%, but a small minority have pencilled in a rate cut. “Given how the dollar is set to weaken on the reflation trade and Federal Reserve is keen to maintain its ultra-accommodative monetary stance into the foreseeable future, the outlook for the rand remains encouraging,” said FXTM senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga. “However, South Africa is still dealing with COVID-19 while extended lockdowns threaten the economic outlook for 2021. Given how the SARB is likely to leave interest rates at a record low of 3.50% this quarter, this may hinder the rand’s gains.” Another cut could hurt the rand by making investing in local assets less attractive. Stocks on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) reversed some of the prior day’s gain following Asian markets, which were down on tensions of rising cases of coronavirus and as President-elect Joe Biden’s aid package sparked worries of higher taxes. The FTSE/JSE all-share index ended the week down 0.52% at 63,550 while the FTSE/JSE top-40 companies index closed down 0.49% at 58,446. Government bonds weakened, with the yield on the benchmark 2030 instrument up 6.5 basis points at 8.83%. (Reporting by Alexander Winning and Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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