Removing Covid restrictions before March would be a disaster in the battle against coronavirus and would risk putting the NHS under enormous pressure if lifted prematurely, a leading epidemiologist has said. Prof John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, said Boris Johnson would be very unwise to ease lockdown curbs before the majority of the public has received vaccinations. The latest stay-at-home measures, which came into effect on 5 January in England and include schools being closed to all but vulnerable pupils and children of key workers, are due to be reviewed in the middle of February. Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “I think it would be a disaster if we removed restrictions in, say, the end of February when we have gone through this first wave of the vaccination. First of all vaccines aren’t ever 100% protective, and so even those that have been vaccinated would be still at some risk. “Secondly, it is only a small fraction of the population who would have been vaccinated and if you look at the hospitalisations at the moment, about half of them are in the under-70s, and they are not in the first wave to be vaccinated. If we relaxed our restrictions we would immediately put the NHS under enormous pressure again.” His comments follow reports in the Daily Telegraph that letters inviting over-70s to book vaccinations could begin arriving as early as next week, with 90% of over-80s in some areas having already been vaccinated. A total of 3,514,385 Covid-19 jabs took place in England between 8 December and 15 January, provisional NHS England data shows, adding to hopes that ministers could deliver on the 2m doses a week they promised by the end of January. Despite the acceleration of the government’s inoculation programme and signs the number of people testing positive for coronavirus is beginning to level off in parts of England, experts have urged for restrictions to remain in place. Dr Susan Hopkins of Public Health England has said the easing of any restrictions should be implemented gradually, with the “hands, face, space” guidance advised to remain in place for some time. Some have gone further, arguing that tougher lockdown measures in England are required to achieve the same impact as the March shutdown to help stop the spread of the virus currently overwhelming frontline hospitals. Prof Susan Michie, professor of health psychology at University College London, is among those saying the spread of the new, more infectious variant meant the restrictions were too lax. Echoing scientific calls for caution, Keir Starmer has indicated he would back further coronavirus measures to ease pressure on the health service, adding that the next few weeks will be critical. After a speech to the Fabian Society’s new year conference on Saturday, the Labour leader said: “Nobody likes restrictions but the tougher the restrictions now the quicker we get the virus back under control, the quicker we reduce the number of hospital admissions and the quicker we get that number of deaths, tragically, down.”
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