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PRAGUE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The crown rebounded towards a
five-month high on Tuesday after the Czech central bank kept
open the chances of rate hikes this year, while other central
European currencies weakened on concerns over roadblocks to a
$1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus plan.
In Hungary, the forint was down 0.2% at 358.40 to
the euro by 1003 GMT before a central bank meeting where
analysts expect rates to stay on hold after a recent warning
from a deputy governor that cautious policy was still justified
amid the pandemic.
"In recent months, Hungary suffered re-acceleration in core
inflation indicators," Commerzbank wrote in a note.
"Temporary or not, this could easily spook the FX market and
put pressure on the forint exchange rate because Hungary now has
the track record of failing to curb inflation for over two
years."
"Overall, the inflation outlook remains troubled enough so
that significant monetary easing from here would be expected
only under special circumstances, for example a dire crisis in
the real economy, which is not the case right now."
Elsewhere, the crown recovered 0.2% to 26.104 per
euro, not far from the five-month peak at 26.055 the Czech
currency hit on Monday.
Central bank Governor Jiri Rusnok was quoted as saying in an
interview with Bloomberg news agency that Czech policymakers may
raise interest rates up to twice this year.
The Czech central bank was in the middle of rate tightening
before the pandemic struck, which forced it to cut its main rate
by 200 basis points, to 0.25%. It is still the most hawkish
central bank in the region.
Romania"s central bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate
by a quarter-point to 1.25% on Jan. 15, adding to a fast fall in
bond yields since elections late last year.
That vote delivered a centre-right government and has cut
some of the risks around the country"s large fiscal deficits.
Romanian 10-year bond yields have dropped to 2.85% from
3.37% seen in mid-December.
At the same time, Hungarian yields have risen amid higher
issuance and an increase in U.S. yields, cutting the spread
between Hungarian and Romanian paper to around 50 basis points
from around 120 bps.
Hungarian yields though have started moving lower.
"At the beginning of the year there was some hesitancy, but
the direction is clear now, foreign investors have returned," a
Budapest trader said.
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