Palestinians should not expect dramatic change from Biden’s US

  • 2/1/2021
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The Biden administration wants to reset US policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Palestinian leaders are welcoming the change from former President Donald Trump’s overtly pro-Israel approach. However, Palestinian concerns will be low on the White House’s priority list and the Biden team is unlikely to move beyond the traditional Washington approach to relations with Israel and the Palestinians. Since Joe Biden’s Jan. 20 inauguration, officials in his administration have made several statements that clarify the new administration’s approach toward Israeli-Palestinian issues, which reflect statements that Biden made as a presidential candidate. The president and his senior foreign policy officials are strong proponents of a two-state solution. In a recent speech at the UN, acting US Ambassador Richard Mills said that Washington supports a two-solution “in which Israel lives in peace and security alongside a viable Palestinian state.” As a candidate, Biden said that a two-state solution is “the only” way to ensure long-term security for Israel and for Palestinians to achieve “national self-determination.” Statements by Biden and Mills also make it clear that the administration wants to restore aid to the Palestinians after Trump cut off millions of dollars in economic aid to the Palestinians and humanitarian aid to UNRWA. The White House will likely be able to take important steps on this issue, though some Republicans have said that the 2018 Taylor Force Act might limit the president’s ability to restore funds. The White House also wants to re-establish diplomatic relations with the Palestinians after Trump closed the Palestinian diplomatic mission in Washington in 2018. However, congressional legislation might complicate the reopening of the mission. Palestinian officials have welcomed these policy changes, as well as the Biden team’s overall interest in pursuing a more balanced policy toward Israel and the Palestinians. Biden likely will be much less accommodating toward Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who easily got most of what he wanted from the Trump administration. At the same time, the new president and his senior officials have been clear that they will maintain the close US alliance with Israel and have expressed strong support for its ally. In testimony before Congress, new Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the Biden administration will not move the US Embassy back to Tel Aviv after Trump moved it to Jerusalem in 2018. The Biden team supports the recent establishment of relations between Israel and several Arab states and hopes to see more, though Palestinians see such moves as undermining their limited leverage in future negotiations. Biden has opposed the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement and his appointee to be ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, last month said that the movement “verges on anti-Semitism.” Biden and his team are seeking to return to pre-Trump policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: An approach that gives consideration to Palestinian concerns but more weight to Israeli perspectives and interests. The Biden team sees a two-state solution as the only option for resolving the conflict, but many analysts increasingly question whether the assumptions behind a two-state solution still apply to the actual situation on the ground. Furthermore, there appears to be little enthusiasm in the new administration for putting significant effort and political capital into pursuing a peace process. Both Biden and Blinken have made comments suggesting a sense that little progress toward a two-state solution is currently possible. Fundamentally, while Washington will view relations with Israel as important, any steps to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be low on the administration’s priority list. Even within the Middle East, regional issues such as addressing Iran’s nuclear program and countering terrorism will take higher priority. Attitudes among the foreign policy establishment have shifted compared to 20 years ago and few Washington Middle East experts see the Israeli-Palestinian issue as a key “fault line” in the region today — a view that Mills’ comments at the UN reflected. The Biden administration would like to improve Palestinians’ lives and make progress toward resolving the conflict, but does not see it as essential to overall regional stability. Within the broader Democratic Party, attitudes toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are shifting. Younger Democrats are much less likely to have a favorable view of the Israeli government compared to Republicans and older Democrats. Younger Democrats are more likely to view the conflict through a lens of social justice, which gives more weight to Palestinian rights than more traditional American narratives of the conflict. However, these voices currently have little influence on the Biden administration and are unlikely to significantly affect US policy in the next four years. There appears to be little enthusiasm in the new administration for putting significant effort and political capital into pursuing a peace process. Kerry Boyd Anderson Palestinians would be relieved if the Biden administration successfully restores humanitarian and economic aid. Meanwhile, Netanyahu knows that he can no longer rely on very strong personal and policy support from the White House. Beyond these developments, it appears unlikely that the Biden administration will lead to significant changes in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, at least over the next four years. It is possible that, once Biden foreign policy appointees are fully installed in their positions and the administration can launch policy reviews and take new steps, the administration might pursue some more innovative ideas toward managing relations with Israel and the Palestinians. However, for Palestinians, the most they can realistically hope for is a return to pre-Trump relations with Washington, while they must live with on-the-ground realities from the last four years, including the US Embassy relocation to Jerusalem and continued settlement expansion. Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 16 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica and managing editor of Arms Control Today. Twitter: @KBAresearch Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view

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