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BUCHAREST, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The Czech crown firmed to a
more than 10-1/2 month high on Tuesday after data showed its
economy grew on a quarterly basis against expectations, while
other central and eastern European currencies also gained.
By 1040 GMT, the crown was up 0.1% against the
euro at 25.9300. The Czech economy grew on a quarterly basis to
end 2020, defying expectations of a fall amid tighter
coronavirus lockdown measures, preliminary data showed.
Markets have priced in expectations that the Czech central
bank (CNB) could start hiking interest rates later in 2021,
ahead of others in the region, eyeing inflationary pressures
from still-low unemployment and a record income tax cut.
"From the CNB"s point of view, the better GDP result is an
argument in favour of considering raising rates this year,
although the stronger crown speaks against hurrying with tighter
monetary conditions," said Radomir Jac, chief economist with
Generali Investments CEE.
Short-end forward rate agreements (FRAs) climbed slightly
after the GDP data.
"Today"s data increases a probability that the CNB will hike
in the third quarter if the pandemic fades away after
vaccination," Erste Bank said in a note. "Today"s figures should
support the crown for this reason."
Elsewhere in the region, the Hungarian forint
extended its gains from the previous session to a seven-week
high. At 1040 GMT it was up 0.1% against the euro at 355.5000.
"There is no fundamental reason for the firming of the
forint; it is a technical move while all emerging currencies are
strengthening," said a trader in Budapest.
"Based on the technical picture there is room for the forint
to strengthen as far as 353 or 352."
The Romanian leu also benefitted from the rise in
regional currencies, trading 0.1% up versus the euro.
The Polish zloty was 0.2% stronger versus the euro
at 4.5025, testing the 4.50 level which analysts see as a line
the central bank will not allow the currency to drop under.
"On the one hand, the direction of a weaker zloty is
counteracted by solid economic foundations, and on the other,
the narrative of the National Bank of Poland protects against
breaking the 4.50 barrier," Bank Millennium said in a note.
Stocks markets were mixed across the region, with Prague"s
bluechip index and Bucharest"s up 1.8% and 0.2%,
respectively, while Warsaw"s fell 0.8%.
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