UK records 678 further deaths as 13,494 people test positive in the last 24 hours The UK has recorded 678 further deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test. There were 13,494 people who tested positive in the last 24 hours and 1,842 people were admitted to hospital since yesterday. More than 13.5 million people have had at least one vaccine dose as of 10 February. Early evening summary Sir Keir Starmer has restated his call for tougher border rules, claiming that around 10,000 people a day could arrive in Britain from higher risk countries without being subject to the hotel quarantine regime coming into force on Monday. (See 1.20pm.) Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, also said the borders were “a bit too leaky” under the UK government’s plans. (See 1.29pm.) Matt Hancock has formally unveiled plans for a significant reorganisation of the health service that he said would bring better integration and accountability and less bureaucracy, but which will also concentrate power over the NHS with ministers. AstraZeneca has said it could take between six and nine months to produce Covid-19 vaccines that are effective against new variants of the coronavirus, and begin administering them to the public. Employers are putting workers at risk and increasing Covid infection rates in communities, unions have said, as research found that as many as one in five people have been going into their workplace unnecessarily. One in four adults in the UK have been left financially vulnerable as the fallout from Covid-19 drives more people into debt, according to the Financial Conduct Authority. Children can use playgrounds for exercise but not for socialising, Downing Street has said, as the government sought to defuse an angry row after it appeared to suggest rules on children playing outdoors were stricter than those for adults exercising. The government is not sure where billions of pounds worth of personal protective equipment (PPE) is located, the head of the National Audit Office has disclosed. The economic blow dealt by Brexit will be four times greater in the UK than the EU, according to the latest forecasts by Brussels. A £27bn expansion of England’s road network has been thrown into doubt after documents showed the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, overrode official advice to review the policy on environmental grounds, the Guardian can reveal. That’s all from me for today. But our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here. NHS reform white paper - Verdict from the experts Here is some comment on today’s NHS reform white paper from health experts. Prof Sir Chris Ham, who used to run the King’s Fund, the health thinktank, told the World at One the plans would not provide a solution to social care. He said: The Lansley reforms were the wrong reforms at the wrong time. It’s the right thing to do to reverse those reforms to go off in a very different direction based on collaboration not on competition. The last decade in many respects has been wasted because of the distraction of those Lansley reforms and the impact that has had on staffing and patient care. The white paper will not provide the solution that many of us have been arguing for on social care because successive governments have ducked that. The prime minister promised in the 2019 election that he would bring forward rapidly plans to establish a different model of funding and delivering social care that was fit for current times – that hasn’t happened and it’s a great regret that that hasn’t happened. Social care has been rejected and the tragic deaths in care homes are just one indication of why we need to look at a sustainable solution. Nicholas Timmins, historian of the welfare state, says it is a mistake to give ministers more direct control over the NHS. In an Institute for Government blog a few days ago based on a leak of the plans (they have not changed significantly) he wrote: As it stands, it threatens to take the NHS back to the wrong sort of future. It largely removes the one bit of Andrew Lansley’s Health and Social Care Act 2012 that has worked, namely the statutory independence of NHS England. It reverts, instead, to a model where ministers exercise command and control over the running of the health service, an approach that many a past health secretary has acknowledged is far from ideal. And, most importantly, it does not remotely make the case for doing that. Indeed, recent events during the pandemic – the initial trials over personal protective equipment and the tribulations of the £22bn test and trace programme, both programmes over which ministers already have direct control – make the case the other way. Among the things that have worked are the way the NHS adapted fast, and locally, to handle the huge surge in patients that Covid-19 produced, and the impressive local organisations of vaccine hubs and much else to deliver, to date, 12 million jabs into the arms of its patients. These are from Sarah Wollaston, the former GP and Conservative MP who chaired the Commons health committee from 2014 to 2019. She left the Tories over Brexit and is now a Liberal Democrat. Adam Lent, director of the NLGN, a local government thinktank, says the white paper is lacking in ambition. In a blog for politics.co.uk he says: In short, this is not the white paper the country needs. Yes, it is good that the Lansley marketisation reforms have finally been put out of their misery but beyond that the paper betrays a profound lack of awareness of how deeply the NHS needs to change. We can only hope that sooner rather than later we get a vision of healthcare from Westminster that not only recognises the need for a new community-powered model for the NHS but also sees that the only meaningful route to decent health is a decent society. Nigel Edwards, chief executive of the Nuffield Trust, a health thinktank, says the centralising powers in the white paper might be a mistake. In a press notice he says: Ministers may come to regret all the new powers they are set to be granted over hospital closures and downgrades, directions to NHS England, and the responsibility to collaborate. The health service is so huge that decisions at the centre can easily miss the reality at the front line. And as earlier governments learnt to their peril, centralising power means you centralise blame, and create more pressure to interfere. Bob Hudson, a visiting professor of public policy at the Centre for Health Services Studies at the University of Kent, identifies four problems with the plans in an LSE blog. He says: Shared endeavours work best when there is a negotiated relationship between all of the local stakeholders based upon a high level of trust and mutual respect. This alchemy is built locally from the bottom-up, not by edict from the top-down. The policy landscape is littered with the corpses of failed top-down experiments; this organisational re-set of the NHS is at serious risk of adding to the number. From Stephen Dorrell, Conservative health secretary in the 1990s Northern Ireland has recorded a further 253 coronavirus cases and nine more deaths. A week ago today there were 412 new cases and 10 deaths. This chart shows how the seven-day rolling average for new cases in Northern Ireland (the green line) has been falling. Tory Covid Recovery Group accuses scientists of spreading "fear and despondency" about lockdown easing It is hard to be sure of the significance of Downing Street’s refusal to say that the roadmap out of lockdown will be published on Monday 22 February, and only that it will be published in the week beginning 22 February. (See 2.11pm.) Boris Johnson has in the past said it would be out on 22 February, but he has also talked about it just coming out that week, and so perhaps he just made a mistake. It would not be the first time he was wrong about the timing of a government announcement. But the Covid Recovery Group, which represents Tory MPs pushing to end the lockdown, is worried. Mark Harper, its chair, has just put out a statement saying the announcement must come on the Monday. He said: The prime minister, vaccines minister and health secretary have all confirmed that the plan for lifting restrictions would come on 22nd February. It’s crucial we don’t backslide on this, not least because the government has said it wants to give schools two weeks’ notice before they open, and - as the PM said - it is the ‘settled will’ of most MPs that pupils should be back in school on 8 March. In the same news release Steve Baker, the CRG deputy chair, accused unnamed scientists of spreading “despair and despondency”. He said: Having a full public debate is essential at this time but I fear senior scientists are failing to recognise their power to spread despair and despondency. Some seem to be floating untested hypotheses in the media. Doing so is not science. It is the death of science. Perhaps worse, it brings scientists squarely into the political domain, something we would I am sure all like to avoid. I look forward to the prime minister’s 22 February roadmap out of restrictions so that we can all reclaim our lives once and for all. Baker, who has declined to name the scientists he is referring to, said he was making this comment in response to reports that criteria for lifting restrictions were changing. Ministers have always said decisions about easing lockdown would be determined by what was happening with cases and deaths; what was happening with hospitals, and the pressure on beds; the success of the vaccine rollout programme; and the situation with new variants. But recently they have been putting more emphasis on knowing how the vaccines perform against new variants. Earlier this month, in a report dismissed by some government sources, the Daily Telegraph claimed Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, was also worried that scientific advisers were “moving the goalposts” on the requirements for ending lockdown. The government is calling for councils to stop using schools as polling stations in May’s local elections to avoid further disruption to pupils’ education. A letter from Nick Gibb, the schools minister for England, and Lord True, the Cabinet Office minister, urges returning officers to look for alternative venues if a school would be required to close while serving as a polling station. It says: This year all children have missed vital time at school and the government is committed to minimising any further disruption to pupils’ education. We know that returning officers are acutely aware of this and are seeking to avoid using schools as polling stations. We support this approach of avoiding schools where it is practically possible to do so; in particular, we are clear that where schools would be required to close, returning officers should look to other available venues first. The letter advises that alternatives such as “places of worship, gymnasiums, or other community or commercial venues” should be looked at. “This should be an opportunity to support local businesses,” it suggests. Where using a school is the only option, the letter asks that “schools and returning officers will, as usual, work together to minimise any disruption and keep the school open where that is possible”. Ministers will tomorrow discuss a plan to set up a system of vaccine certificates for when international travel is allowed again, Sky’s Aubrey Allegretti reports. In the past ministers have denied planning “vaccine passports” although often comments on this topic have failed to differentiate between “vaccine passports” that might be used domestically to access venues, jobs or services (which the government does not support, and is not planning) and “vaccine passports” for international travel (which were always more likely because airlines started saying they would be requiring them). I’ve amended the post at 2.11pm to point out that Downing Street was wrong to say the EU triggered article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol at the lobby briefing. The EU only floated the possibility of doing this, before swiftly withdrawing the threat. You may need to refresh the page for the update to appear. Public Health England has published its latest weekly Covid surveillance report (pdf). As PA Media reports, it shows that case rates are continuing to fall in all regions of England. PA goes on: In the West Midlands, the rate of new cases stood at 237.6 per 100,000 people in the seven days to 7 February - the highest rate of any region, but down from 326.8 in the previous week. The East Midlands recorded the second highest rate: 223.7, down from 280.0. South-west England recorded the lowest rate: 120.3, down from 176.5. And case rates in England are also continuing to fall among all age groups. The highest rate is among 30 to 39-year-olds, which stood at 265.3 cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to February 7, down week-on-week from 367.2. Among 20 to 29-year-olds the rate dropped from 342.5 to 247.4, and for 40 to 49-year-olds it fell from 323.5 to 227.5. For people aged 80 and over, the rate fell from 294.6 to 200.5. And here are some of the charts from the report. The government’s online portal to allow travellers to book a quarantine hotel when arriving in England from a country on the banned travel list has gone down for maintenance on the day it was launched, PA Media reports. The website went live earlier today but a message on the portal says: Due to a minor technical issue, the link to the booking portal in this guidance will not be available until later today. Please return to this page later if you wish to make a booking. NHS England has recorded 494 further coronavirus hospital deaths. The details are here. A week ago today it recorded 630 coronavirus hospital deaths. No 10 says it"s "disappointing" EU letter failed to acknowledge anger caused by Irish border threat Here are the main lines from today’s Downing Street lobby briefing. The prime minister’s spokesman said children could be taken to outdoor playgrounds for exercise, but not “for the sole purpose of socialising”. He was asked to clarify the position after the Cabinet Office issued a statement which suggested that children should not meet another child for exercise and that they should use playgrounds only if they did not have a private garden. The spokesman refused to confirm that the government’s roadmap for easing lockdown restrictions would be published on Monday 22 February. Previously Boris Johnson has said it will be published that day. But the spokesman would only confirm that it would be published in the week starting 22 February. The spokesman said that it was “disappointing” that the EU’s letter to Michael Gove yesterday about the Northern Ireland protocol “failed to acknowledge the shock and anger felt across the community in Northern Ireland from its decision to trigger article 16”. The letter was from Maroš Šefčovič, vice-president of the European commission, who is meeting Gove later today to discuss the protocol. It is here (pdf). As my colleague Jon Henley reports, in the letter Šefčovič rules out major changes to the Brexit deal’s Northern Ireland protocol, saying the EU is not prepared even to consider any “flexibilities” until the UK fulfils the obligations it has already signed up to. Asked about the letter, the spokesman said: We have set out the issues that we want to see addressed and that is the purpose of the meeting later. It is disappointing that the commission has failed to acknowledge the shock and anger felt across the community in Northern Ireland from its decision to trigger article 16 and the need to take urgent steps to restore confidence as a result. We have set out in our letter (pdf) from CDL [chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove] to the vice president the issues that we want to see resolved, that’s our focus and that’s why the meeting will take place later today. In fact, the EU never triggered article 16 of the protocol. It floated the possibility of doing so, but swiftly backed down after protests about this amounting to creating a border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Boris Johnson himself has also threatened to trigger article 16. The UK says it would never impose a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, although quite what would happen at that border if the UK did trigger article 16 is unclear. The spokesman said Boris Johnson has not yet booked his own summer holiday. Allegra Stratton, the PM’s press secretary, defended Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, after he described the London mayor Sadiq Khan as “loony” in the Commons this morning. Rees-Mogg’s comments came in response to a question from Andrew Rosindell (Con) criticising Khan’s decision to set up a Commission for Diversity in the Public Realm to make statues, plaques and street names more representative of modern London. Rosindell said the “leftwing” commission members were a threat to London’s proud history and heritage. Rees-Mogg replied: I absolutely agree with my honourable friend. It seems to me that the mayor of London has replaced Red Ken as Red Khan. Who would have thought that you’d have a more leftwing leader of London than Ken Livingstone? And now we do, and Red Khan is he. It is quite wrong that these loony leftwing wheezes should be inflicted upon our great metropolis, and I think the mayor in his zeal is potentially treading on the toes of councils anyway – that councils have the right to name streets, by and large, not the mayor of London, and I don’t think he should interfere in things that aren’t his responsibility. Last month Stratton told journalists at a briefing that Johnson wanted people to be “civil and kind” to each other. But she would not accept that Rees-Mogg was being uncivil or unkind when he called Khan “loony”. Referring to the insult, she went on: It’s not something that if it was hurled at me I would be particularly upset, and I’m sure it will be hurled at me in the months ahead. Sturgeon urges Scots to "hold off a bit" before making holiday plans At her daily briefing Nicola Sturgeon also said that she could not say with any certainty where people might be able to have a summer holiday. She said that while she was ‘pretty sure’ she would not be telling people they could travel overseas, she did not know whether she would be able to tell people they could visit anywhere in Scotland, or anywhere else in the UK. She said: Right now, today, I would say to people not to book foreign holidays, and I would say just be cautious about booking holidays even domestically. If you want to take the chance that it will be okay, that’s not for me to decide for you. But I can’t give you 100% guarantee that by the time we get to the date things will be okay … if you want to err on side of caution then hold off a little bit. UK borders "too leaky" to protect against new variants, says Sturgeon UK borders are “too leaky” to protect against new variants, Nicola Sturgeon has said, as she confirmed that she is still trying to persuade the UK government to adopt Scotland’s more comprehensive approach to quarantine for international travellers. She said that the current situation where an individual could cross the border after entering the UK in England without having to quarantine created a “backdoor vulnerability” for Scotland. Scotland’s first minister told her daily briefing that the situation was discussed on a four nations call last night “where I raised again the concerns that the UK borders as a whole are still a bit too leaky to protect properly against importation of this virus and new variants of it”. Sturgeon also warned that there may be a reduction in vaccine appointments over the next few weeks, having received slightly lower stock due to a temporary reduction in Pfizer’s manufacturing capacity. Adding that the vaccine programme was going “far better than I dared hope”, she told journalists that the programme remained on course to reach all over-70s and those in clinically vulnerable groups by 15 February. Sturgeon confirmed 48 additional deaths as well as 1,499 people currently in hospital. She said: Significantly, that means the number of patients in hospital is now back below the peak of last spring, which is another wee ray of sunshine for us to feel positive about. She also reported a new daily figure for long-stay Covid patients, those who have been in ICU for a period of longer than 28 days, with 28 of those, two fewer than yesterday.