TREASURIES-Ten-year yield soars, curve steepens on reflation trade

  • 2/16/2021
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(Recasts, updates yields, adds analyst comments) Feb 16 (Reuters) - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield neared 1.3% on Tuesday and the yield curve steepened as expectations of extended fiscal and monetary stimulus alongside hopes of an economic upswing boosted the reflation trade. The benchmark 10-year yield, which reached 1.292%, its highest level since February 2020, was last up 8.2 basis points at 1.282%. The 30-year U.S. yield also rose, touching a one-year high of 2.095%. It was last 7.7 basis points higher at 2.081%. Back from Monday"s Presidents Day holiday, Treasuries were catching up with a global bond sell-off. German 10-year yields rose on Tuesday to their highest in eight months. Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Management in Philadelphia, said Treasuries were also missing Asian buyers. "What we"ve seen over the last several months has been buying out of Asia and much of Asia markets are quiet right now for the (lunar new year) holiday," he said. President Joe Biden has been drumming up support for a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package. Meanwhile, optimism about vaccine rollouts has lifted stocks and commodity prices globally at the expense of safe-haven assets like Treasuries. "The market has fully embraced the prospects of Biden"s $1.9 trillion stimulus, and the accelerated vaccine rollout is support of further bearish price action as well," Westpac strategists told clients. A closely-watched part of the yield curve, which measures the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes , widened to as much as 116.95 basis points, its widest level since 2017. It was last up about 6.22 basis points at 115.94 basis points. The spread between five-year notes and 30-year bonds , grew to as much as 155.35 basis points - the widest since 2015. It was last at 153.23 basis points. While long-dated yields have soared, the two-year yield has been anchored by expectations the Federal Reserve will keep policy rates near zero for years to come. Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week pledged "patiently accommodative monetary policy" to get the United States back to full employment. Investors will look to the release of the Fed"s January meeting minutes on Wednesday for confirmation of that stance. The view that the Fed may let the economy run hot has pushed 10-year inflation expectations to their highest since 2014, with the breakeven inflation rate last at 2.246%. Official talks about tapering Fed bond buying, which could begin in the second half of 2021, pose a potential downside risk to breakeven rates, analysts at Cornerstone Macro said in a research report on Tuesday. "That could signal to investors, first that a large buyer in the market is about to become smaller and eventually disappear, and second that the Fed’s resolve to overshoot on inflation may not be very strong, depending on what the outlook for inflation will be at that time," the report said. February 16 Tuesday 12:25AM New York / 1825 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.04 0.0406 0.000 Six-month bills 0.055 0.0558 0.000 Two-year note 100-2/256 0.121 0.010 Three-year note 99-184/256 0.2193 0.026 Five-year note 99-42/256 0.5463 0.061 Seven-year note 98-224/256 0.9174 0.077 10-year note 98-136/256 1.282 0.082 20-year bond 91-68/256 1.908 0.085 30-year bond 95-108/256 2.081 0.077 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 9.25 0.00 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 9.75 -0.25 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 12.50 0.25 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 9.00 1.75 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -19.00 1.50 spread (Reporting by Karen Pierog in Chicago, additional reporting by Sujata Rao and Abhinav Ramnarayan in London and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Nick Zieminski)

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