UPDATE 2-Reflation bets push German yield curve to steepest since March

  • 2/17/2021
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* German 2s/10s yield curve rises to steepest since March * Italian risk premium rises from 2015 lows * Germany auctions 30-year bond with positive yield (Adds U.S. retail data, Treasuries, updates prices throughout) AMSTERDAM, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Bets on a rise in inflation that have dominated global bond markets in recent weeks briefly pushed the German yield curve to its steepest since March 2020 on Wednesday. Expectations of economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis and extraordinary fiscal stimulus in the United States has recently pushed global bond yields higher, led by U.S. Treasuries. With expectations for rising inflation hitting longer-dated bonds harder than shorter ones, yield curves -- often seen as indicators of economic expectations -- have steepened on both sides of the Atlantic. In the euro zone, the gap between two- and 10-year German bond yields, a closely watched segment of the yield curve, rose to its steepest since March 2020 early in the session at 36 basis points before later retreating to the prior session’s high of 32 basis points. Germany’s 10-year yield, the euro zone’s benchmark, touched a high in morning trading, reaching -0.331%, a level unseen since June. It also pulled back in afternoon trading and went back to -0.36%. The same pattern applied to yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries which reached a high of over 1.33% - their highest since Feb. 27, 2020 - before retreating to about 1.28%. Buoyant U.S. January retail sales nevertheless suggest a pick-up in economic activity that fits the reflation narrative. In this context of heightened inflation fears, U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes released later on Wednesday will be closely scrutinised. Attention is also on Italy, where Prime Minister Mario Draghi promised sweeping reforms to help rebuild Italy following the coronavirus pandemic, as he set out his priorities before a mandatory confidence vote in his government. The appointment of the former European Central Bank chief, who is expected to more effectively implement economic reports than his predecessors, has boosted investor confidence in Italian government bonds. Italian bond yields, which rose to near three-week highs in earlier trade at 0.616%, were last broadly unchanged at 0.58% The gap between Italian and German 10-year yields -- effectively the risk premium on Italian debt -- rose to 95 basis points, compared with around 87 basis points last week, which was the lowest since 2015. In the primary market, Germany raised 1.242 billion euros from the re-opening of a 30-year bond, the first to offer a positive yield in almost a year, according to Commerzbank’s Rieger. After rising to positive territory on Feb. 4, 30-year German bonds now yield 0.14%, underperforming shorter-dated bonds given reflation bets. (Reporting by Yoruk Bahceli, additional reporting by Julien Ponthus, editing by Larry King)

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