hroughout the pandemic, Boris Johnson has sought to reassure both the public and his MPs that if they waited long enough, a scientific breakthrough would arrive and transform the landscape. He’s talked about the “distant bugle of the scientific cavalry coming over the brow of the hill”, and in November, after a study suggested the Pfizer vaccine was 90% effective, declared that the “toot of the bugle is louder, but it’s still some way off”. Now that the government has hit its 15 million vaccination target for the top four priority groups early, many Tory MPs believe the bugle call is deafening and the cavalry can charge down the hill. Their new concern? The prime minister can’t hear it. The growing fear in the Conservative party is that the goalposts have been moved. As the prime minister puts the final touches to the government roadmap to easing lockdown, MPs sense a shift in strategy. For all health secretary Matt Hancock’s promise of a “great British summer”, social distancing could be here for some time, with ministers reported to be considering a 1-metre rule until at least the autumn. In the past, Johnson has spoken of a coronavirus strategy based on preventing the NHS from being overwhelmed. This is why many Tory MPs hold the view that once the first nine priority groups – whom the deputy chief medical officer, Jonathan Van-Tam, says account for up to 99% of Covid hospitalisations and deaths – have had their first jab, the bulk of restrictions can start to be lifted. But in recent weeks, MPs believe Johnson’s focus has moved to transmission. “He [Johnson] seems to have been swayed by the whole argument about how you can’t have many cases,” says a government insider. With scientific advisers warning Johnson that community spread of the virus could spark new variants, there’s increased talk of cases needing to fall to the hundreds before significant socialising can occur. This concern was evident in a broadcast interview Johnson gave this week in which he was asked whether it was OK for the virus to circulate among twentysomethings and for the disease to be treated like flu. The prime minister warned that a “large volume of circulation” among the young risked new variants developing and the disease spreading to the older groups again, so it was crucial to “drive it right down and keep it right down”. For many in the Tory party, however, the purpose of the vaccines was to turn Covid from a deadly virus that needed to be suppressed into one that society can live alongside like flu. “People are fed up with the goalposts moving,” says an MP who supported the third lockdown. “There are variants with all diseases.” “The scientists are getting far too much airtime,” adds one Whitehall official. “They are setting the narrative, and the prime minister is too easily swayed.” With Johnson insistent that this will be the last lockdown, MPs worry that all scientists have to say regarding a measure to get Downing Street onside is “Do you really want this to be the last lockdown?” “We are in a reverse emperor’s new clothes,” says a senior Tory. “The cavalry has come and then we’re told it’s not enough. There needs to be something that says we can get back to normal. If it’s not the vaccine, what is it?” A handful of the most vocal Tory MPs, who make up the Covid Recovery Group (CRG), have already spoken out publicly, with Philip Davies saying the prime minister is in “cloud-cuckoo land” if he thinks people will wait for no infections. While Downing Street is increasingly dismissive of the group they view as the Covid hardliners, figures who are harder to ignore are likely to start sounding off if the roadmap disappoints. Many in the party have until now been working on the assumption that the cautious approach reflects a new desire to “underpromise and overdeliver”. As a result, they have regarded previous interventions by the CRG as premature. “People are holding tight as they hope [the] roadmap goes their way – once [it is] out, that will change,” says an MP currently on the fence. “Things need to be back to near normal by summer.” Already there are signs that the initial boost the vaccine gave to party morale is waning. When Hancock appeared last week before a virtual 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers, attendance was low, and those who logged in did so mainly to “have a go at him” about his plan for 10-year sentences for people who lie about where they have been on holiday. Even if these MPs don’t get their way next week, senior Tories believe they hold the power in the medium term. In March, MPs will vote on re-approving various Covid restrictions, with another vote in the summer. “There’s no way people [will] approve restrictions for much longer,” says an MP in the middle of the party on Covid opinion. While there was only a small rebellion to the third lockdown compared with previous ones, that was because of a combination of warnings of high fatalities, the Kent strain and the promise of vaccines. If deaths plummet and hospitalisation figures fall, expect MPs to return to old ways fast. In cabinet, ministers are keeping their powder dry for now. But this is in part because those keen for a faster route out believe the data will soon speak for itself. Once the impact of the vaccines is visible, MPs are banking on a shift in public opinion. “Once the over-50s are done,” says one, “the political room gets small for the prime minister. People will go about their business.” If Johnson deviates far from his original aim of a scientific cavalry stopping the NHS from being overwhelmed, he will have a lockdown rebellion on his hands. Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor