Breakingviews - Capital Calls: Warren Buffett’s oil bet

  • 2/18/2021
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CHEXXON AND THE SAGE. Warren Buffett has invested $4.1 billion in oil giant Chevron, Berkshire Hathaway said in a filing this week. It could just be the Berkshire chairman’s hallmark investment strategy – buying solid companies in out-of-favor sectors. But in light of Chevron’s recent merger talks with rival Exxon Mobil, Buffett could also be signaling which of the two companies is more likely to come out on top. On paper, Buffett has chosen the more expensive of the two. Exxon’s enterprise value is 1.3 times its estimated revenue for this year, according to Refinitiv, more than one-third below Chevron’s multiple. That’s partly because Chevron chief Mike Wirth has shown himself to be a better operator with EBITDA margins around 20%, more than four times Exxon’s. Chevron could also get a boost from a supply crunch, partly exacerbated by crippling weather in Texas this week, which could send oil prices up. As its own value closes in on Exxon’s, a deal between the two could become more appealing. That could be a merger of equals, as this Breakingviews calculator options shows. But if Chevron decides to take the leading role and pay a takeover premium, Buffett’s backing is good to have. (By Lauren Silva Laughlin)

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