Breakingviews - JDE Peet’s spilt milk has lessons for IPO hopefuls

  • 3/9/2021
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LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) - Last year’s big coffee floatation is leaving investors with a bitter aftertaste. Shares in $19 billion JDE Peet’s dived after it disappointed with its 2021 outlook on Tuesday, and have now dipped below their May initial public offering price. Rivals Illycaffe, which may also want to list soon, and Unilever, which may spin off its tea arm, will have furrowed brows. JDE Peet’s 2020 sales were almost in line with analyst expectations. Where the Dutch group fell short was its out-of-home sales, which fell more than expected thanks to renewed lockdowns closing cafes and restaurants. It didn’t help that Chief Executive Fabien Simon said it would be a whole 18 to 24 months before the division would get back to normal. Simon’s travails offer lessons for other IPO keen beans. Unilever’s Chief Executive Alan Jope in February said a float of its tea division, which has 3 billion euros in annual sales, was “highly likely”. Italian coffee maker Illy sold a 20% stake to Rhone Capital and a floatation could one day provide an exit for the private equity group. They’ll want to avoid being blighted by JDE Peet’s shaky start to life as a public entity, particularly since it’s the only listed company which only does tea and coffee. After surging 15% on the first day of trading, the group traded well above the 31.5 euro price until late October. It recovered but Tuesday’s 7% fall puts IPO investors in negative territory. JDE’s Simon vowed to turn over a new leaf and catch up on advertising and promotion expenditure in 2021. That explains his guidance of a low single-digit organic increase in adjusted operating profit compared to almost 7% expected by analysts. It’s unsurprising that this was an area deemed worth cutting. JDE’s biggest shareholder is JAB, which manages the Reimann family’s money. It’s part of a coterie of investors known for maximising M&A and minimising cost. Jope and the Illy family can avoid the same pitfalls by investing in the growth of their hot drinks brands. With coffee an affordable luxury, encouraging drinkers to trade up to posher brands such as Illy is probably not that difficult with the right advertising nudges. The same goes for profitability-boosting innovations like Iperespresso capsules. Spending now could prevent JDE-style spilt milk later on.

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