1. China and Russia: hostile states or not Downing Street’s leaked integrated review of defence and foreign policy is notably cautious when it comes to China, using language that is likely to disappoint the growing number of Beijing hawks on the Conservative backbenches. “China’s growing international stature is by far the most significant geopolitical factor in the world today,” the 100-page document states, before going on to use carefully even-handed language to discuss Beijing. “The fact that China is an authoritarian state, with different values to ours, presents challenges for the UK and our allies. China will contribute more to global growth than any other country in the next decade with benefits to the global economy.” Contrast that with Russia, described as the most “acute threat to our security” – in effect labelling the country run by Vladimir Putin as a hostile state. “Until relations with its government improve, we will actively deter and defend against the full spectrum of threats emanating from Russia,” it adds. Significantly, neither country is explicitly mentioned when it comes to justifying the headline decision in the review: a rise in the UK’s stockpile of Trident nuclear warheads from 180 to 260, a first increase since the end of the cold war. But it is clear that the two nuclear powers are in mind when the review says that the Trident decision was taken “in recognition of the evolving security environment, including the developing range of technological and doctrinal threats”. 2. The Indo-Pacific tilt – and don’t mention the EU Although one of the underlying reasons for publishing the review remains the UK’s recently completed departure from the European Union, references to the bloc are few and far between. A country-by-country section in the middle of the official document begins by saying “the United States will remain the UK’s most important strategic ally and partner”. The section on “European neighbours and allies” only promises to find “new ways” of working with the EU, although France and Germany are highlighted as key partners. Immediately after are two pages describing the “Indo-Pacific tilt” – the key new policy orientation in the document, arguing that the region is “the world’s growth engine: home to half the world’s people; 40% of global GDP”. At the same time it is “the centre of intensifying geopolitical competition with multiple potential flashpoints”. As a result the UK intends to deploy the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier and supporting carrier strike group into the Indo-Pacific later this year – but the document doesn’t say if the intention is to sail down disputed waters, close to artificial islands built by China in the South China Sea. 3. Can you claim global leadership and cut aid? Boris Johnson’s foreword contains what appears to be a last-minute concession as there is no other reference to it in the document. “The UK will remain a world leader in international development and we will return to our commitment to spend 0.7% of gross national income on development when the fiscal situation allows,” it says. Aid to Yemen was cut by 59%, partly as a result of a decision advocated by chancellor Rishi Sunak to cut budgets to 0.5% of GDP despite a pre-coronavirus manifesto commitment to keep the spend at 0.7%. Other leaks suggested that spending could fall by anywhere between half and, in the case of Syria, two-thirds. Elsewhere in the document, the language on aid is less enthusiastic. “As governments become able to finance their own development priorities, we will gradually move towards providing UK expertise in place of grants,” the review says, despite bold promises of “dynamically shaping the post-Covid order”. 4. Cyberwarriors and robot soldiers The review argues that “cyberspace will be an increasingly contested domain, used by state and non-state actors” and that hacking capabilities will spread to more countries while reliance on digital infrastructure increases. It repeats previous announcements to create a national cyber force, which combines military and intelligence capabilities in offensive hacking for the first time, but does not explicitly link that to China or Russia – although both countries along with Iran and North Korea are repeatedly accused of engaging in cyber-attacks. A heavy emphasis on hi-tech warfare is expected next week when a defence command paper highlights how the integrated review will be implemented by the armed forces. That is expected to see the UK expanding its drone fleet to include lethal loitering drones, similar to those used by Turkey, and other robotic technologies that raise questions about the role of humans in deciding when to shoot. 5. Selling the plan to the public through science and industry In the aftermath of the Covid crisis, there is a heavy emphasis in the document on greater industrial self-sufficiency, a reversal of the long emphasis on laissez-faire strategy pursued by both Conservative and Labour governments and to “sustain strategic advantage” through science and technology. A promise is made to “incorporate science and technology as an integral element of our national security and international policy” reflecting a belief that the UK’s relative success in deploying Covid vaccines stems in part from the ability to develop the drugs at places such as Oxford University.