Breakingviews - Capital Calls: Volvo’s chip pothole is not so big

  • 3/23/2021
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WHEELS OF FURY. Volvo’s axle has taken a knock. Shares in the $55 billion Swedish truckmaker fell by 7% on Tuesday morning after the company run by Martin Lundstedt warned that a shortage of semiconductor chips would hit production for up to a month, with a “negative impact on earnings”. True, Volvo had previously flagged chip shortages only for the first quarter. But a market capitalisation loss of $3.9 billion (33 billion Swedish crowns) looks excessive. Deutsche Bank thinks factory downtime could mean 16,000 fewer trucks, knocking 7% off projected annual earnings of 29.1 billion Swedish crowns, using Refinitiv data. That would entail a decline of only 2 billion Swedish crowns. Investors seem to be fretting that the chip problem endures a lot longer, and that Lundstedt will struggle to make up lost revenue in the second half. Given that LMC Auto reckons overall truck sales in Volvo’s key U.S. and European markets will expand by nearly a fifth year-on-year, they may be too pessimistic. (By Christopher Thompson)

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