This is an important week for oil markets. On Monday, Abu Dhabi established a new futures contract for its crude. The UAE hopes that Murban will become another benchmark for both physical and non-physical market participants. In the long run, it hopes Murban will become a flagship benchmark for Gulf crudes. This would, however, necessitate Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and others to join. More importantly, OPEC+ will hold its virtual Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee and full ministerial meetings later this week. All eyes will be on whether ministers will taper the historic production cuts, which still stand above 6.8 million barrels per day (bpd), and whether Saudi Arabia will continue or reduce its additional voluntary cut of 1 million bpd. At the beginning of March, OPEC+ and the Kingdom surprised markets by extending cuts, both agreed and voluntary, for another month. As oil prices jumped on the news, some analysts feared an overheating of the markets and inflationary pressures. In hindsight, the ministers were well-advised to leave things where they were. While demand has recovered in Asia, with China at pre-pandemic levels and India getting there, West of Suez things looked grimmer. Europe is bracing for a third wave of COVID-19 with mutant strands dominating. Country after country tightened restrictions and regions went into new lockdowns. Other countries agonized over how to stop the virus, just as their people wanted to return to a sense of normality for Easter. To make matters worse, the “Ever Given” ran aground and blocked the Suez Canal. The accident resulted in the high volatility of oil prices. However, in the end, they moved sideways, proving just how constrained European demand is. The development also reflected how the waterway has become a lot less important to oil exports from the Gulf, which ships the majority of its crude to Asia. Since 2000 the amount of crude shipped through the waterway has nearly halved to 2.1 million bpd. Then there is also the Sumed pipeline from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, which has a largely unused capacity of 2.5 million bpd, courtesy of OPEC+ production cuts. Looking at the current situation, oil is up some 25 percent since the beginning of the year, but Brent still lost 6.5 percent since March 11, trading at $64.67 per barrel Monday early afternoon CET. WTI lost 7 percent since March 5 trading, reaching $61.20 per barrel. On a positive note, the commodity returned to backwardation outlook from a contango earlier in the month, which reflects a more optimistic medium-term outlook. On Thursday, OPEC+ ministers will take all of the above into consideration and closely monitor stockpiles, which have come down since April last year. Caution may still be the order of the day, particularly for Saudi Arabia which for a long time has urged restraint when it comes to tapering production cuts. The recent development proved the Kingdom right, as evidenced by high volatility but not higher oil prices, because of the Suez Canal blockage. In the medium term, the outlook for oil remains positive as, in a few months, vaccination programs will have taken hold in Europe, as they did in Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK and US. Then, as countries reopen, oil will resume its trajectory as a reflation trade. We are just not quite there yet. Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources