TREASURIES-Yield curve flattens ahead of jobs report

  • 4/1/2021
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(New throughout) NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - Higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower on Thursday, flattening the yield curve, but ultimately did little to affect investor expectations related to Friday’s monthly employment report. The Labor Department said the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week. The long end of the yield curve fell after the report, continuing a move lower that began overnight in Asia. The 10-year yield was last down 7.3 basis points to 1.674%, with the 30-year yield last down 9.5 basis points to 2.328%. The drop in the long end flattened the yield curve, with the spread between two- and 10-year yields narrower by 6.8 basis points and the spread between the five- and 30-year yields down 4.8 basis points. While a flatter yield curve can signal a slowing economy, investors and economists expect that Friday’s jobs report will show a sharp acceleration in employment growth in March. “We think we’re likely to see with the release of tomorrow’s employment data, the labor market is continuing to heal from the COVID economic shutdowns, and a good proportion of the jobs recovered are from precisely those services sectors most directly impacted by the shutdowns,” wrote Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of fixed income at BlackRock. The dip in yields came a day after the close of a remarkable quarter in which the benchmark yield rose more than 80 basis points. A strong jobs report could reverse Thursday’s counter-trend and push yields higher once again. “People are going to realize this rally in the bond market over the last two sessions probably dies. I think the number on Friday could be stronger than people expect,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Seaport Global Holdings. Economic growth and a slate of heavy Treasury debt issuance will keep yields on the upswing in April and May in spite of counter-moves like that seen on Thursday, said di Galoma. There was evidence of an improving labor market in other data released on Thursday. A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in March were the fewest in more than 2-1/2 years. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a March jump in its index of national factory activity to the highest level in more than 37 years. The survey’s employment gauge for the sector shot up to 59.6, the highest reading since February 2018. (Reporting by Kate Duguid; Editing by Will Dunham and Dan Grebler)

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