It’s Al-a-buh. Of all the controversies surrounding Alex Salmond’s new political party, his inability to pronounce it was the most unexpected. When you’re one of the most famous Scottish nationalists in history, launching a new party named after the Gaelic word for Scotland, you really should research how to say it in the native tongue. Instead, the former first minister enraged purists and amused opponents by enunciating Alba with a suspiciously Sassenach two syllables. His pronunciation isn’t the only aspect of Salmond’s new party that’s dividing opinion. Depending on who you listen to, Alba is either one man’s ego trip, a desperate scheme to destroy Nicola Sturgeon or the best chance of forcing Boris Johnson to concede a second independence referendum. So which is it really? If Salmond’s ambition is to bolster his ego, the early evidence is that he could be in for disappointment. The first opinion poll to include the Alba party, published by my newspaper the Courier on Thursday, predicts the party will get no seats in next month’s Scottish parliament elections. Even more worryingly for Salmond, his net favourability rating is a dreadful -61, making him significantly more unpopular with Scots than even Johnson (-32). Those numbers seem to have dented his self-confidence. Consider the national statesman who took Scotland to within 200,000 votes of independence in 2014 and compare him with the diminished figure who presided over Alba’s blunder-filled campaign launch last weekend, then unveiled a string of candidates with track records of dodgy remarks or offensive social media posts. Salmond has surely been on one of the most dramatic post-resignation journeys in the history of elected office. Since losing his Westminster seat, four years ago, he has launched a highly controversial talkshow on the Vladimir Putin-backed RT television network; faced a number of sexual harassment allegations dating back to his time as first minister; won a court battle with the Scottish government over how it investigated those claims; been acquitted of 13 counts of sexual assault, including attempted rape, after a high court trial; and publicly accused Sturgeon’s husband, Peter Murrell, and other senior figures in the SNP of being involved in a “malicious plan” to have him jailed. It is not really surprising there has not been much time for candidate-vetting. One candidate whose conduct Salmond has spent a lot of time examining recently is Sturgeon. Five weeks ago he told the Holyrood inquiry into the Scottish government’s botched handling of the harassment complaints that he believes his former deputy broke the ministerial code on numerous occasions during the process. It was widely interpreted as an attempt to end her political career. If it was, it failed – the independent Hamilton inquiry cleared the first minister of any wrongdoing. This is why some are convinced Alba is primarily a vehicle to heap more pressure on Sturgeon, who now believes Salmond mistreated at least one woman who worked for him, and is not fit for public office. Salmond publicly insists his comeback is motivated purely by his desire to see Scotland leave the United Kingdom, and has promised supporters that backing the SNP in the first (constituency) vote and Alba in the second (regional) ballot will secure a “supermajority for independence” at Holyrood. While the early polling tells a different story, Salmond will still fancy his own chances in the north-east of Scotland, where he enjoys a considerable personal vote and is standing as his party’s top candidate. Alba could also have success attracting socially conservative voters who are uncomfortable with SNP policies such as gender self-identification. While the schism in Scottish nationalism has largely been framed as a personal feud between Salmond and Sturgeon, bitter arguments familiar from culture wars in other parts of the world have also played a part. An influx of new members after the 2014 referendum made the SNP one of the largest mass-membership political parties in Europe – but the unexpected deluge introduced thousands of young, diverse and politically progressive members into a party that had largely been the preserve of white, middle-aged men. The two camps have increasingly clashed, and some of the early defections to Alba suggest it is partially acting as a new home for those whose wider politics sat more comfortably in the old SNP. The new party is, of course, primarily expecting to pick up second votes from independence supporters frustrated at Sturgeon’s slow progress towards a second referendum. Ultimately, however, it might not be the voters who decide what happens next on the constitutional issue. Johnson has repeatedly insisted he will block a further ballot. A Holyrood majority cobbled together from two warring independence factions secured through tactical voting would be easier to refuse than a direct mandate for the SNP alone. So where does this all leave Salmond? If the SNP wins a majority without Alba, it doesn’t need him. If votes that go to Alba deprive the SNP of a majority, he has damaged the cause that defines his politics. And even if Alba MSPs do contribute to an overall pro-independence majority, Johnson has the get-out card of accusing the nationalists of unfairly gaming the electoral system. Salmond’s ego is at risk of taking another bruising, Sturgeon’s position looks secure, and there is no electoral outcome in which Alba helps the fight for independence. That sounds bad for Salmond, however you pronounce it. David Clegg is editor of the Courier