TREASURIES-U.S. yields slip as markets consolidate positions, but uptrend intact

  • 4/5/2021
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* U.S. yield curve steepens, after flattening on Friday * Eurodollar futures pricing full Fed hike by December 2022 * U.S. services sector index soars to record high (Recasts; adds analyst comment, updates prices) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices edged higher on Monday, pushing yields lower, as investors paused recent selling of government bonds and took profits from short positions, though the uptrend in rates remained intact following Friday"s blockbuster non-farm payrolls report. Trading was quiet to start the week, with most of Europe still on holiday for Easter Monday. China, Hong Kong and Australia were closed as well. The U.S. yield curve, which has become a barometer of risk sentiment in the bond market, steepened on Monday after flattening the previous session. The spread between U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields rose to 154 basis points. "Payrolls started the back-up in rates and continued in the morning. As we look at the economy moving forward, the market has pushed forward the pricing of U.S. rate hikes," said Justin Lederer, Treasury analyst, at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York. "We bounced off that. The market may have felt that the moves were a little bit too quick." The eurodollar futures market, which tracks short-term interest rate expectations, has fully priced in a U.S. interest rate hike by December 2022, sooner than the fourth quarter of 2023 seen a few months ago. In afternoon trading, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was last down at 1.716%, from 1.72% on Friday. U.S. 30-year yield fell to 2.361%, from Friday"s 2.37%. At the short end of the curve, U.S. 2-year yields dipped to 0.172% from 0.19% on Friday. Earlier in the session, 2-year yields hit a high of 0.194%, the same level touched in late February which was roughly an eight-month peak. Monday"s data remained supportive of the higher-yield trend in Treasuries, with a U.S. service sector index soaring to a record high of 63.7. That positive data still prevailed over a report that showed U.S. factory orders falling more than expected in February. Treasuries" bearish price momentum remained, analysts said, most recently driven by the stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for March. Friday"s data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged 916,000 last month, the biggest gain since August. Data for February was revised higher to show 468,000 jobs created, instead of the previously reported 379,000. "The trend is still definitely for higher yields and we see the 10-year hitting 2% by the end of the year," said Stan Shipley, fixed income strategist at Evercore ISI in New York. But he noted that there could be seasonal factors that may put downward pressure on yields. "We"re seeing a bit of a pause here in yields, not only in the U.S., but globally. We have been trading around these levels in the 10-year since mid-March," Shipley said. April 5 Monday 3:08PM New York / 1908 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.02 0.0203 0.000 Six-month bills 0.03 0.0304 -0.010 Two-year note 99-231/256 0.1744 -0.016 Three-year note 99-168/256 0.3676 -0.022 Five-year note 99-18/256 0.9414 -0.039 Seven-year note 98-252/256 1.4032 -0.017 10-year note 94-160/256 1.7198 0.000 20-year bond 93-160/256 2.2757 0.006 30-year bond 89-152/256 2.3627 -0.007 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 13.25 0.00 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 16.75 0.00 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 12.00 0.75 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 3.50 0.00 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -22.50 -1.00 spread (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Dan Grebler and Chizu Nomiyama)

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