* U.S. 5-, 7-, 10-, 30-year fall to one-week lows * Buying by overseas investors support Treasuries -fund manager * Eurodollar futures price in 3 Fed hikes by end-2023 * U.S. 2/10 yield curve flattens (Repeats to additional subscribers without any changes to text) NEW YORK, Reuters (April 6) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday, led by the so-called belly of the curve, on investor views that market pricing based on an earlier-than-expected tightening by the Federal Reserve was too aggressive. Market participants also said there was some support for Treasuries from overseas buyers, particularly Japanese investors after the end of their fiscal year on March 31. Japanese investors, ahead of the fiscal year-end, typically sell U.S. assets such as Treasuries and repatriate those proceeds back to their home country to enhance their balance sheets. U.S. 5-year notes led the decline in yields, falling seven basis points to 0.872% after hitting 14-month highs on Monday. Seven-year yields also fell, down seven basis points as well, at 1.332%. U.S. 10-year and 30-year yields fell to more than one-week lows, while those on the 20-year dropped to a two-week trough. Movements in U.S. 5-year note yields typically reflect the market’s interest rate expectations, analysts said. At its March policy meeting, the Fed made it abundantly clear that it does not expect to raise interest rates until 2024. However, eurodollar futures, the most liquid interest rate market, late on Tuesday, still has almost fully priced in a Fed hike by December 2022, and two more rate increases in 2023 in the wake of March’s blockbuster U.S. non-farm payrolls and a U.S. services index hitting an all-time high. “I think the Fed will stick to what they said. The Fed tells us that they’re not going to raise rates and they’re going to let inflation overshoot,” said Don Ellenberger, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. He added that the Fed cannot raise rates in a panic reaction to an inflation overshoot, or it will lose its credibility. TD Securities and Barclays, following Friday’s jobs number, have both recommended buying 5-year notes, citing a market mispricing of rate expectations. “The bar for the Fed to hike rates remains high as the Fed needs to see an inflation overshoot and an inclusive labor market recovery,” said TD’s research note. “This would require substantial labor market improvement over a longer period in our view. In addition, given the need for the Fed to complete tapering before hiking rates, which can take the better part of a year, we think the market is overpriced for a risk of an early Fed hike,” TD added. In afternoon trading, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was last down at 1.68%, from 1.72% on Monday. U.S. 30-year yields were down at 2.347%, from Monday’s 2.363%. On the short end of the curve, U.S. 2-year yields slipped to 0.164%, from 0.174% on Monday. “Longer term, we’re going to see rates continue to grind higher. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see 2.25%-2.50% in the 10-year by the end of the year just from a fundamental standpoint,” said Federated’s Ellenberger. The yield curve flattened on Tuesday after tightening the previous session. The spread between U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields slid to 149.50 basis points. (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Dan Grebler and Nick Zieminski)