EMERGING MARKETS-Oil, copper gains boost commodity-linked Latam FX

  • 4/6/2021
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* Peruvian sol set for best day since Nov * Mexican peso at over 6-week high * Stocks mixed in afternoon trade (Updates prices throughout, adds details) By Ambar Warrick April 6 (Reuters) - Commodity-linked currencies led gains across Latin American asset markets on Tuesday as strong economic data boosted oil and metal prices, although a resurgence in local COVID-19 cases dampened the outlook. Mexico"s peso touched its highest level in more than six weeks, while Colombia"s peso added 1% after oil prices rebounded on positive economic data from China and the United States. A rally in copper prices spurred strong gains in Chile"s peso and in the Peruvian sol, which was set for its best day since November. Emerging market assets also benefited from a weaker dollar and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields. The International Monetary Fund also forecast slightly better-than-expected growth for Latin American economies in 2021 thanks to strong commodity exports. But the IMF said the recovery looked mixed due to uncertainty over the virus and vaccine supply. It also said that Asian economies would be the best performers among emerging markets. Most Latin American units are trading down for the year and have underperformed their broader emerging market peers since the start of the pandemic. Brazil"s real is one of the worst annual performers, despite the start of a rate-hiking cycle by the central bank. "While tighter monetary policy should eventually lead to more favorable yield differentials for Latam FX, it could initially lead to an increase in Latam FX volatility as markets question the willingness of local central banks to respond," said Ilya Gofshteyn, senior EM macro strategist at Standard Chartered Bank. "Indeed, even a hawkish response might not be enough to convince markets." Gofshteyn noted that volatility in Latam markets had been subdued this year, and that inflation could pick up substantially in the near term. Latin American governments have announced a slew of spending measures to support their economies. But this in turn has raised concerns over spiking government debt. Sluggish vaccination programs in major economies, such as Brazil, have also cast a pall over the outlook for the region. Brazilian Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto said the second wave of COVID-19 infections will dent economic activity until May. In Argentina, a new allocation of International Monetary Fund special drawing rights (SDRs) and higher soy prices will not reduce the country"s risk of defaulting on its debt again, ratings agency Moody"s said. Most Latam stocks were mixed by afternoon trading. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1829 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1348.31 0.71 MSCI LatAm 2351.50 0.83 Brazil Bovespa 117785.68 0.23 Mexico IPC 48029.49 -0.45 Chile IPSA 4860.78 -0.21 Argentina MerVal 49937.90 2.758 Colombia COLCAP 1323.29 -0.05 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.5932 1.53 Mexico peso 20.1783 0.60 Chile peso 717 0.66 Colombia peso 3635.25 1.03 Peru sol 3.639 1.46 Argentina peso (interbank) 92.2800 -0.01 Argentina peso (parallel) 137 2.19 (Reporting by Ambar Warrick and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton and Jonathan Oatis)

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