EMERGING MARKETS-Latam currencies bounce as dovish Fed, U.S. jobless data hits dollar

  • 4/8/2021
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* Brazil"s real leads gains among EM FX peers * Copper-exposed currencies strengthen * Peruvian sol edges highs, eyes on weekend presidential vote (Adds comments, details; updates prices throughout) By Shreyashi Sanyal April 8 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies rose against a weaker dollar on Thursday as dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve weakened the dollar and Treasury yields in the face of an unexpected rise in U.S. weekly jobless claims. Brazil"s real rose 1.3%, even as coronavirus infections and deaths soared in the country. The country is set to overtake the United States as the worst stricken by the pandemic, with a sluggish vaccine rollout adding to investor concerns. That, along with stretched fiscal spending and political woes, made the real one of the worst performing emerging market currencies in 2020 and again in 2021. "Coupled with the risk that the lockdown measures might have to be extended for longer, which would hamper the recovery in Q2/21, the ongoing uncertainty over the 2021 budget and the fiscal outlook will be yet another headwind for the recovery in investor sentiment in the coming weeks," analysts at TS Lombard wrote in a note. Broader emerging market stocks and currencies rose on weakness in the dollar and U.S. treasury yields, after the minutes from the Fed"s latest meeting showed that the bank was in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. Pressure from high yields has weighed down emerging market assets this year, especially in the currency and fixed income space as yield differences narrowed between risky and more stable debt. Chile"s peso and the Peruvian sol both gained on strength in copper prices amid concerns over supply, while optimism over rising demand in major economies also supported prices. Analysts have also praised Chile"s vaccination program, even as the Andean country faces another severe wave of COVID-19 infections. "Chile"s inoculation drive has been impressive, with 60 doses per 100 people administered – more than the U.S. and the UK," Nikhil Sanghani, Latin America economist at Capital Economics wrote in a client note. "While Chile is currently battling with a severe wave of virus cases, we remain cautiously optimistic about the resilience of the economy in Q2, and the prospect of a vaccine-related boost to output over the second half of this year." Mexico"s peso and Colombia"s peso rose on recent gains in oil prices, as expectations of increased demand supported the crude market. Mexican inflation rose above the central bank target in March, coming in in-line with expectations. The Mexican central bank held its benchmark rate last month, supporting the peso, and had forecast slightly higher inflation in the coming months. The Peruvian sol edged higher, as the country gears up to vote for a new president on Sunday after a year of political turmoil, with a focus on the coronavirus pandemic, economic revival, corruption and mining policy in the world"s No.2 copper producer. Latam stocks were mostly higher by afternoon trading. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1343.69 0.37 MSCI LatAm 2374.97 0.72 Brazil Bovespa 118222.10 0.51 Mexico IPC 48173.19 0.57 Chile IPSA 4891.43 0.67 Argentina MerVal 49848.05 -0.559 Colombia COLCAP 1327.14 -0.65 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.5717 1.31 Mexico peso 20.0890 0.58 Chile peso 708.2 0.72 Colombia peso 3627.55 0.70 Peru sol 3.596 0.33 Argentina peso (interbank) 92.3800 -0.04 Argentina peso (parallel) 137 1.46 (Reporting by Ambar Warrick and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Alison Williams and Marguerita Choy)

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