WASHINGTON/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Eight years ago this month Jerome Powell, still in his rookie year as a Federal Reserve governor, surveyed the U.S. job market and declared it was good enough for the central bank to reduce the support for the economy it had rolled out to fight the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis. The unemployment rate had just hit a post-crisis low of roughly 7.5%. But for Blacks it remained a catastrophic 13%, a fact not raised by Powell or any other policymaker during their meeting. “We’ve achieved substantial progress towards our economic objectives,” Powell told his colleagues according to transcripts of that April 30-May 1, 2013, Federal Open Market Committee meeting. He encouraged them to reduce the Fed’s monthly bond buying at “the next plausible opportunity.” The “taper” from that earlier crisis began later in 2013. The Fed is again confronting a similar debate with Powell now its chair - singing a markedly different tune. The shift in his language on the matter now shows how fully the central bank has switched gears to emphasize maximum employment as the paramount of its two congressionally mandated goals. Though markers like unemployment insurance claims and labor force participation are, because of the pandemic, worse today than they were when the Fed started withdrawing crisis support the last time, some broad indexes of labor market health are in fact better now than they were then. GRAPHIC: Tapering, now and then - Yet Powell, who speaks of the homeless people he sees on his commute as a measure of his job performance, says he is nowhere near ready to pull back on the throttle. In fact he cringes at labor market data like the current Black unemployment rate of 9.6%, which is far better than when he was ready to tighten policy after the last crisis. The Fed today “has a different view of what constitutes full employment,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director for the Indeed Hiring Lab. “The labor market may be roughly as healthy as it was at the end of 2013, but the Fed thinks it’s further from full employment.” TAKING THE OPPOSITE BET The Fed’s commitment to this new approach will be tested in coming months with an expected jump in inflation, beginning this week when data due on Tuesday is likely to show consumer prices in March rose 2.5% from a year earlier. Though largely due to comparison with weak prices at the start of the pandemic last spring, the surge in the index will likely mark the beginning of what Fed officials acknowledge will be a “tricky” battle to convince the public, financial markets and elected officials that higher inflation is what the economy needs, with wage gains and higher headline growth likely to come with it. It’s a hard argument to win if gas prices skyrocket this summer and the airline travel people avoided during the pandemic becomes too expensive. “Price stability,” defined by the Fed as inflation averaging 2% annually, is its second area of responsibility. Fed policymakers have spent much of the last decade trying to understand why inflation remained below the targeted level despite efforts to lift it.
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