INSTANT VIEW-Bank of England's Haldane to quit this year

  • 4/13/2021
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April 13 (Reuters) - The Bank of England said on Tuesday that its chief economist, Andy Haldane, will leave the central bank later this year to become chief executive of the Royal Society for Arts, Manufactures and Commerce. Haldane - who has struck the most upbeat tone among BoE policymakers about Britain’s prospects for a rapid recovery from the COVID pandemic - will step down from the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) after its June meeting and start his role at the RSA in September. The BoE said it would advertise for a new chief economist in due course. Here are initial reactions: KALLUM PICKERING, BERENBERG “Markets will need to reassess the new policy tilt of the committee once the new chief economist takes her or his place. Our BoE calls remain unchanged. We continue to expect the BoE to complete its asset purchases by year-end – in line with latest BoE guidance. In 2022 the BoE is likely to set out an exit strategy from its ultra-easy policy stance before hiking the bank rate in 2023. The potential for upside surprises in economic performance and inflation tilts the risks for the first hike towards a hike at the end of 2022.” CHRIS SCICLUNA, DAIWA CAPITAL MARKETS “Based on the current outlook, we would have assumed that Haldane would have been one voting for policy tightening. I don’t think the path for policy will change that much though with a tapering of gilt purchases likely to be announced in the months ahead. “There is a quorum of MPC members that are singing from the same hymn sheet. Still, on average we have lost the most hawkish member of the MPC and going into the end of the year, who knows how the outlook will change.” STUART COLE, EQUITI “The most interesting element to me is that he is an – probably the - arch-hawk on the MPC, and his removal will certainly see a move dovish tone seep into meetings. As for his replacement, this will presumably now be advertised and interviews held. But you have to wonder how much influence there will be from HMT (HM Treasury) to try and ensure his replacement is of a more dovish ilk. The last thing HMT wants is borrowing costs to rise, given its huge pile of debt which could quickly become unaffordable if servicing costs rise too sharply.” FAWAD RAZAQZADA, TF GLOBAL MARKETS “I think Haldane being considered a hawk in the MPC camp is the reason why the pound has struggled today. People bullish on the pound are not taking any chances, as he could be replaced by a dovish policymaker. “ JEREMY STRETCH, CIBC WORLD MARKETS “In a sense you could argue his departure would take away at the margin a little bit of the hawkishness of the MPC...depending on who his replacement is. Not in a scenario where under normal circumstances we’d be thinking about any policy tightening. ... Not sure it necessarily changes the time frame or parameters for any policy response from the BOE materially.” JAMES SMITH, ING “Markets have initially viewed it as the only major hawk leaving the committee, perhaps the only hawk at the moment ... His comments about the recovery being particularly fast were not shared by all his colleagues.” (Reporting by Saikat Chatterjee, Ritvik Carvalho, Dhara Ranasinghe, Danilo Masoni, William Schomberg; compiled by Mark John)

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