The German political season began with an unprecedented bang this past week, as — for the first time in memory — the long-ruling, center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance found itself knocked out of the driver’s seat of the country’s politics. Instead, the center-left Greens, having just nominated the youthful, canny and competent Annalena Baerbock as its candidate for chancellor, is rather shockingly in pole position as the race for the September parliamentary elections begins. A late-April survey for the NTV and RTL broadcasters confirmed this. It found the Greens with 28 percent support, followed by the CDU/CSU with 21 percent. This upending of 16 years of CDU/CSU dominance can be put down to the chaotic and barely democratic appointment of Armin Laschet, the colorless premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, as its chancellor candidate. Unlike the smooth coronation of Baerbock, Laschet’s ascent to power within his party was uncharacteristically bumpy. The inconvenient truth for Laschet’s backers is that not even the rank and file of his own party want him. A recent poll, reported in The Times of London, noted that Laschet has the support of only 12 percent of CDU voters as the best pick for the chancellorship. Likewise, within his own North Rhine-Westphalia stronghold, fully 69 percent of voters are dissatisfied with his record as state premier. Chosen as CDU leader by only 1,001 party apparatchiks and endorsed as chancellor candidate merely by the 40 members of the CDU’s ruling board (in a 31-9 vote over his chief rival, the far more popular CSU leader Markus Soeder), it is safe to say the deeply uncharismatic Laschet has next to no political legitimacy as he starts his run for the chancellorship. The foreign policy commentariat, perpetually showing its center-left spots, predictably swooned at this seeming sea change in German politics. The Greens are on record as being against the EU’s recently concluded investment treaty with China and are also against the completion of the Russo-German Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which more firmly ties Berlin to Moscow. On its surface, this would all seem to confirm that a very different era in German foreign and security policy is upon us. However, upon closer inspection, this is not the dawning of the Age of Aquarius — a golden new era in German activism. Instead, upon closer inspection, the Green party’s pledges are so much less than meets the eye, paradoxically underlining that centrist, neutralist, corporatist Merkelism will triumph, regardless of whether the Greens or the CDU/CSU emerge victorious in their September contest. Let us look in a little more detail at the Greens’ foreign policy pledges that so excite the commentariat. Due to human rights concerns, the Greens are against the just-concluded EU investment deal with China. So, it turns out, are the Chinese. After EU criticism of Chinese abuses of the Uighur minority in its western Xinjiang province, Beijing dismissively backtracked on the deal. Powerless to stop the accord in the first place, the Greens have played no tangible role in its unraveling either. So the party’s virtue signaling practically stands for nothing. Likewise, if the Nord Stream 2 project, almost completed, is finished ahead of the September polls, will the Greens then cancel the massive energy project? As was true under Merkel, the Greens say they are committed to the NATO alliance, and particularly strategic ties with the US. As under Merkel, this amounts to mere verbiage. Neither comes anywhere near to meeting the 2 percent spending commitment NATO members have pledged to reach. In 2020, German defense spending stood at an unacceptable 1.6 percent of the gross domestic product after decades of free riding off the US. The Greens go further, saying the 2 percent standard should be done away with entirely, as it is random. More to the point, as was true for an embarrassed Angela Merkel, the Greens want to change the subject from decades of German strategic irresponsibility. Again like the outgoing chancellor, the Greens are leery of using military force abroad, unless sanctioned by the irrelevant UN. For all their high-minded talk, in forgoing the possibility of creating and using a serious military force, the Greens are opting for Germany continuing down Merkel’s path of being a rabbit in a world inhabited by lions. Merkelism will triumph, regardless of whether the Greens or the CDU/CSU emerge victorious in their September contest. Dr. John C. Hulsman The one arena where the Greens truly provide a difference is in their adherence to their radical, hippie roots over the nuclear issue, which is not a source of unity with Washington. They remain committed to the US withdrawing nuclear weapons from Germany, even as they continue to push for the fantasy of a world without nuclear weapons, as though that were remotely a serious option, given not just the US, but also the realities of Russia and China. No, after actually looking at the Green party’s policy proposals, what we see is not the triumph of the new, but the victory of the old. Whether the Greens or the CDU/CSU win in September, the ultimate triumph goes to Merkelism, as Germany will continue on its bland (and slightly otherworldly) centrist, neutralist, isolationist and corporatist course. That is the real, and untold, story of the moment. Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via chartwellspeakers.com. Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view