UK economy set to grow faster than the U.S. this year - Goldman

  • 4/26/2021
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Britain looks set to see faster economic growth than the United States this year as the country races ahead with its vaccination programme after its slump in 2020, Goldman Sachs said on Sunday. The bank said in a note to clients that it now expects British gross domestic product to grow by a "striking" 7.8% this year, "above our expectations for the U.S." Previously, Goldman had expected Britain"s economy would grow by 7.1% this year and its forecast for U.S. growth in 2021 stands at 7.2%, helped by U.S. President Joe Biden"s huge fiscal stimulus programme. A Reuters poll of analysts published on April 13 showed an average forecast for growth of 5.0% in the UK, the world"s fifth-biggest economy, in 2021. The International Monetary Fund has projected a 5.3% expansion. But since those forecasts were made there have been signs of an acceleration in the pace of recovery with the country now having given a first coronavirus vaccine to more than half of its total population. read more "The UK economy is rebounding sharply from the Covid crisis," Goldman Sachs said. "The April flash PMI was much stronger than expected in the UK, with the services PMI moving strongly further into expansionary territory," it said. The bank also noted a much-stronger-than-expected 5.4% monthly jump in retail sales in March. Britain"s economy shrank by nearly 10% last year as it was hit by longer coronavirus lockdowns than many of its peers. By comparison, the U.S. economy shrank by an estimated 3.5%, according to the IMF. On Saturday, Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent was quoted as saying he expected "very rapid growth at least over the next couple of quarters" as the country lifts its coronavirus restrictionsBank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent has forecast consecutive quarters of rapid growth but also warned that inflation will prove less predictable, according to an interview with the Telegraph newspaper. It may be too soon to call a "roaring twenties" scenario, but it certainly means "very rapid growth at least over the next couple of quarters" particularly as the economy will be boosted by people simply saving less, Broadbent said in remarks published Saturday evening in the Telegraph newspaper. Broadbent said in the interview that there has been "less of a disinflationary effect" as households have also switched spending into other areas. "The price rises for those hitting capacity limits are going to be bigger than the falls in prices for those seeing falls in demand", he told the newspaper. "When you get the shift in demand, you"re going to run into bottlenecks in some areas, particularly in those areas where supply, too, has been hit for a particular reason", he added. Broadbent said there was room for more quantitative easing if needed, but added that "the tool box" was less important than "the primary question of what you want to do with the stance of monetary policy". The Bank of England said last month that Britain"s economic recovery was gathering pace thanks to the speed of COVID-19 vaccinations, but its policymakers were split over the prospects for longer-term improvement. read more Broadbent said in February that the Bank of England would need significant news to alter the pace of its purchases of British government bonds, which were part of its response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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