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* Graphic: World FX rates tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, May 27 (Reuters) - The dollar found support on
Thursday from a sense that the Federal Reserve is slowly but
surely edging towards a discussion about tightening monetary
policy, while the yuan hit a three-year high as China"s central
bank kept to the sidelines.
Investors are heavily short dollars in the belief that U.S.
trade and current account deficits will widen as the world
recovers from the pandemic. But the mere suggestion of tapering
is enough to hold off further selling, and, following a surprise
jump in consumer prices in April, markets are also on
tenterhooks ahead of U.S. jobs and GDP data on Thursday and
inflation on Friday.
Majors were mostly steady through the Asia session, with the
around $1.2190 and the yen and sterling
softening very slightly to hit one-week lows.
Dollar strength also clipped the wings of the kiwi
and it bought $0.7286 after hints of a 2022 rate hike by the
Reserve Bank of New Zealand had pushed it as high as $0.7316 on
Wednesday. The Australian dollar dipped to $0.7732.
The yuan bucked the trend because traders took central
bank"s fixing of the daily midpoint at stronger than 6.4 per
dollar as a sign that further gains might be tolerated.
It has benefited from inflows into China"s credit and equity
markets as a government vow to address sharp commodity price
gains allayed fears about rising inflation. And the fact that a
virtual call between top U.S. and Chinese trade officials seemed
to go without acrimony on Wednesday also helped, and the yuan
rose to 6.7399 per dollar offshore.
The U.S. dollar index held on to Wednesday"s gains
and was steady at 90.055. Cryptocurrencies slipped, but not so
far as to dash gains they have made since collapsing last week.
"Expect more short-covering in the USD as investors look for
upside surprises in U.S. data today and tomorrow," said
strategists at DBS Bank in Singapore in a note on Thursday.
WAIT AND SEE
The latest fretting about inflation and the risk it prompts
tapering was triggered when data in mid-May showed April U.S.
CPI running at an annual clip of 4.2% - juiced by the low base
of the pandemic year, but still well above forecasts for 3.6%.
Fed officials have sought to hose this down with plenty of
remarks about how much further they think the recovery needs to
run. But they, and notably influential vice chair Richard
Clarida, have also began publicly acknowledging at least that
the time to talk about policy changes might be approaching.
"That"s probably behind the USD strength we"re seeing at the
moment," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist
Kim Mundy on the phone from Sydney.
"The fact that we"re expecting to see quite a strong jump in
headline inflation might just reinforce market expectations that
maybe the Fed is on track to introduce tapering later this
year," she said, adding Friday"s PCE will be closely watched.
Economists expect core PCE prices to jump 2.9% year-on-year
in April, compared with a year-on-year rise of 1.8% a month
earlier. Traders said that waiting on this number and on figures
through the summer might hem majors into tight ranges until the
inflation situation and rates outlook becomes a bit clearer.
According to RBC Capital markets, the yen, which is
sensitive to U.S. rates movements and began the year tumbling as
yields leapt, has spent May in its tightest range since December
2019 and, excepting that month, its tightest range in 45 years.
By contrast, the hints of clarity around rate hike timing in
New Zealand has vaulted the kiwi closer to the Canadian dollar
and Norwegian crown among the best performing G10 currencies.
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Currency bid prices at 522 GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar $1.2188 $1.2192 -0.02% -0.24% +1.2197 +1.2176
Dollar/Yen 109.1300 109.1300 +0.00% +5.66% +109.2000 +109.0600
Euro/Yen
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