Boeing’s (BA.N) crown as the world’s biggest plane-maker looks increasingly lopsided. Punchy new production targets from Airbus (AIR.PA) and Boeing’s lingering woes over the ill-fated 737 MAX point to the European manufacturer turning in the higher-flying performance. Assuming Chief Executive Guillaume Faury delivers, Airbus’s days in Boeing’s valuation slipstream may be numbered. Prior to the crash of one of its 737 MAX short-haul planes in Ethiopia in early 2019, Boeing’s ascendency looked unassailable. With a market capitalisation of almost $250 billion, it was more than double the size of the $100 billion Toulouse-based firm. Closer inspection, however, reveals a narrower gap in actual operations. The previous year, Boeing delivered 806 commercial jets compared to 800 for Airbus, and generated $14 billion of EBITDA, against $12 billion for its trans-Atlantic competitor. Since the depths of the coronavirus crisis, when their pummelled valuations were almost neck-and-neck, Boeing shares have outperformed Airbus by 17%. Against the pair’s respective recoveries, that looks out of whack. According to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv, Airbus will generate comfortably more EBITDA for the next three years, including $12.5 billion in 2023 against $10.8 billion for Boeing. Beyond that, Airbus feels pretty good about capturing a chunk of the all-important market for short-haul, single-aisle jets. Faury reckons that by 2025 Airbus could be churning out 75 A320neos, its equivalent of the fuel-efficient 737 MAX, every month. That’s 900 a year and a big step up from Airbus’s monthly target of 45 such jets by the end of this year. By contrast, Boeing is targeting monthly production of its best-selling jet in December of just over two dozen. And even when his plants grind back into top gear, Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun’s salespeople will face pressure to cut prices from disgruntled customers like Ryanair (RYA.I) boss Michael O’Leary, who accused Boeing last month of complacency and “abysmal” communication. That could further squeeze EBITDA margins that analysts reckon will be 12% in two years, lower than Airbus’ forecast 15%, according to Refinitiv. There’s even the chance of geopolitics playing a role, with airlines in China, the fastest-growing domestic aviation market, potentially leaning towards Airbus due to tensions between Beijing and Washington. Against such headwinds, Calhoun’s valuation crown may struggle to remain in place. Follow @edwardcropley on Twitter CONTEXT NEWS - Airbus on May 27 raised its jet production targets, buoyed by hopes of a recovery in the short-haul aviation market and demand for the A320neo, its single-aisle workhorse. - The European plane-maker told its suppliers it would be making 64 A320neos a month by the second quarter of 2023, up from a current rate of 40. It added that it might raise production to 75 a month by 2025. - Shares in Airbus closed 9% higher on May 27, at 106.68 euros. The stock closed at 110.70 euros on June 2. - Shares in U.S. rival Boeing rose 2% to a one-month high on May 27.