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* Dollar hits 3wk top vs EUR, 8wk high on yen
* Volatility gauges jump ahead of U.S. non-farm payrolls
* Musk tweet whacks cryptos
* Graphic: World FX rates tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, June 4 (Reuters) - The dollar was perched at
multi-week highs on Friday, after notching up its biggest gains
in about a month following robust jobs data that threw
investors" focus on to the strength of the U.S. recovery and the
possibility of policy tightening.
The next test comes later in the day when U.S. non-farm
payrolls data is published. The consensus forecast is for about
650,000 jobs to have been added in May, though the "whisper
number" among traders is closer to 800,000.
Private payrolls data delivered a big beat with an increase
of 978,000, against forecasts of 650,000, which sent the dollar
rallying.
It rose 0.7% on the euro on Thursday and drifted
another 0.1% higher through the Asia session to a fresh
three-week high of $1.2110 per euro.
It sat by a two-month top against the Japanese yen at 110.32
yen per dollar and hung on to Thursday"s gains of more
than 1% against the Aussie and the kiwi.
China"s yuan also softened past 6.4 per dollar, while
other moves were very slight as markets now await the payrolls
figures, due at 1230 GMT, with options trade showing it is
expected to trigger volatility.
"Clearly traders are covering dollar shorts into the jobs
data," said Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage
Pepperstone in Melbourne.
He thinks a million or more jobs might see the Aussie fall
by another 1%, the euro drop about 0.8% and the dollar/yen
exchange rate gain that amount as traders factor in a policy
response to the strong economy.
"Between 250,000-500,000 jobs and we"ll potentially see
dollar/yen fall 0.6% to 0.8%," Weston said. "A number in line
will not give us much to work with, so the moves in the market
will be dictated by the broad quality of factors – revisions to
the April print of 266,000, the unemployment rate, hourly
earnings."
At issue is whether the data points to the sort of hiring
that could reel in pandemic job losses, lift wages and drive
broad U.S. growth that increases the trade deficit and weighs on
the dollar - or whether things feel like they are overheating.
Positioning data shows investors heavily short dollars,
leaving the market hypersensitive to any suggestion of a change
in direction for the currency or a shift in the rates outlook -
hence the options market is priced for a bumpy ride.
Overnight implied dollar/yen volatility shot up to a month
high above 8% on Thursday and euro/dollar implied
volatility hit its highest since mid-March.
Brian Daingerfield, head of G10 currency strategy at
Natwest, sees a payrolls print around 550,000 as the
"goldilocks" number: "strong enough to keep the recovery going
but not strong enough to pull tapering fears forward."
That could weaken the dollar broadly, he said, offsetting
Thursday"s moves, while bonds could recover lost ground.
Benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose 3.6 basis points to
1.6300% overnight and traded near that level in Tokyo on Friday.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.1% on Friday to
a three-week high of 90.596 on Friday.
The Australian dollar was licking wounds at
$0.7659, after falling to its lowest since mid-April overnight,
while the kiwi was parked at $0.7151 after slipping to
its cheapest since early May on Thursday.
Sterling was steady at $1.4091 after dropping
through its 20-day moving average as the dollar climbed.
Cryptocurrencies took a knock from a string of Elon Musk
tweets, but are tracking toward solid weekly gains. Bitcoin was
last off nearly 6% at a little over $37,000.
========================================================
Currency bid prices at 0543 GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar $1.2108 $1.2127 -0.16% -0.90% +1.2132 +1.2108
Dollar/Yen 110.2450 110.2900 -0.02% +6.76% +110.3250 +110.1450
Euro/Yen
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