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* Rangebound trade ahead of inflation and ECB
* DXY at 90.090, EUR/USD holding below $1.22
* Dollar seen vulnerable to inflation surprises on either
side
* Graphic: World FX rates tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, June 9 (Reuters) - The dollar clung to its recent
small bounce on Wednesday as traders looked to upcoming U.S.
inflation data and a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting to
gauge the pace of global recovery and policymakers" thinking
about pulling back on stimulus.
Investors have piled up bets against the dollar, but are
growing nervous about whether the beginning of the end of
enormous monetary stimulus is nigh - and worry that interest
rate rises could end a 15-month dollar downtrend.
Some think tapering could be hastened, and the dollar
boosted, if U.S. inflation runs hotter than the 0.4% monthly
clip that economists expect. For the ECB, the focus is on any
signs of an imminent slowdown to its bond buying programme.
Both are due on Thursday and the anticipation has all but
killed volatility in major currencies, as traders assume a
wait-and-see stance. The euro was steady at $1.2179 in
the Asia session, while the dollar held at 109.47 yen.
Deutsche Bank"s Currency Volatility Index hit its
lowest level since February 2020 on Tuesday. The U.S. dollar
index was parked at 90.090.
"Markets need reassurance that the global economic recovery
isn"t under threat from either dangerous strains of COVID, or
from the Fed being forced to change tack (on stimulus) much
earlier than expected," said Societe Generale currency
strategist Kit Juckes.
"So far, the vaccines appear to work and while distribution
is uneven ... it"s still accelerating overall," he said.
"That"s cause for hope. For markets though, it means that
risk assets need regular reassurance that the Fed isn"t going to
tighten sooner than expected. And so, we wait for Thursday"s CPI
data, then next week"s FOMC."
The Australian and New Zealand dollars were firmly
entrenched in narrow bands, with the Aussie at $0.7741,
roughly the middle of the past two months" range, and the kiwi
travelling likewise at $0.7197.
Sterling has also stalled as doubt has crept in
over whether rising cases of the coronavirus" Delta variant in
Britain could delay business reopening plans scheduled for June
21. It last bought $1.4155.
BOC, ECB, CPI
Leading in to the U.S. inflation figures, Chinese producer
price data for May showed the biggest jump in a dozen years -
signalling that factories are not absorbing higher raw material
costs and that price pressure is flowing down supply chains.
Canadian dollar traders were also on edge ahead of
a central bank meeting on Wednesday. The bank is expected to
leave rates on hold but flag further tapering of asset
purchases, with any surprises on the size or speed liable to
boost the loonie.
However, the week"s major focus is on inflation, and the ECB
and traders see both events bringing risks on all sides.
"U.S. economists are expecting a 0.4% month-on-month rise in
both the headline and the core inflation numbers - they"re big
numbers," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency
strategist Joe Capurso.
"I think the risk is they fall short of that," he said. That
could pull down U.S. yields and bring the dollar with them,
Capurso added, unless the figure spooked stock markets enough to
drive safe-haven flows into the dollar.
The ECB is expected to keep policy settings steady, but the
euro is likely to be sensitive to changes in the bank"s economic
forecasts or any signal that the pace of bond buying could be
reduced in months ahead.
Elsewhere, China"s yuan was steady around the 6.4 per dollar
level on Wednesday, as a bill aimed at competing with
China cleared the U.S. Senate, damping yuan bulls" recent
enthusiasm.
Bitcoin recovered from a three-week low it hit on
Tuesday when signs of institutional investor caution and
regulatory attention drove selling. It last bought
$32,754.
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Currency bid prices at 444 GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar $1.2179 $1.2173 +0.05% -0.32% +1.2185 +1.2172
Dollar/Yen 109.4650 109.4650 +0.03% +6.01% +109.5000 +109.4150
Euro/Yen
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