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* FX volatility drops to lowest since February 2020
* Traders watch for evidence of prolonged inflation
* Bitcoin steady after biggest rally in four months
By Kevin Buckland
TOKYO, June 10 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered near a
five-month low versus major peers on Thursday as investors
looked to U.S. inflation data and a European Central Bank
meeting later in the day to provide a spur for lacklustre
currency markets.
Investors have adopted a wait-and-see attitude all week,
sucking volatility from the market and leaving major currencies
mostly range-bound.
The dollar index has fluctuated narrowly around the
psychologically important 90 level, and was last at 90.206 - not
too far from last month"s low of 89.533, a level not seen since
early January.
The euro rose to a one-week high at $1.2218 on
Wednesday only to finish little changed, and was mostly flat at
$1.21635 in Asia.
The yen traded at 109.565 per dollar, also little
changed from Wednesday and near the middle of the 109.19-110.325
range of the past two weeks.
Deutsche Bank"s Currency Volatility Index
languished at its lowest level since February 2020.
The U.S. Labor Department"s consumer prices data has been
much anticipated after last month"s report showed consumer
prices increased by the most in nearly 12 years in April.
That has stoked bets that higher prices could last longer
than some anticipate, potentially calling into question the
Federal Reserve"s insistence that current inflation pressures
are transitory and monetary stimulus should stay in place for
some time yet.
Economists polled by Reuters estimated the CPI advanced 0.4%
in May.
Westpac analysts side with Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) officials in the inflation debate, and don"t expect a
taper of the central bank"s asset-purchase programme until the
second half of next year.
They forecast the dollar index will drop to 87.30 at that
time, before then grinding higher again "as U.S. monetary
tightening takes effect," according to a research note.
"The FOMC is clearly fixated on the need to restore "maximum
employment," even if that comes at a cost," the note said.
While the greenback has kept to tight ranges in the run-up
to the CPI report, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields
- which helped drive the dollar index to a multi-year high
earlier this year - have taken a sizeable step lower in the past
week and were at 1.4806% in Asia from as high as 1.6350% on
Friday.
"It feels like the balance of risk is tilted to the upside
on U.S. CPI versus the consensus, which would favour a sell-off
in Treasuries - (and thus) higher yields - and subsequently a
stronger USD," Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage
Pepperstone in Melbourne, wrote in a note to clients.
"Bonds seem overbought."
With the ECB, investors will be watching for any clues of an
imminent slowdown to its bond-buying program.
While the ECB is widely expected to keep policy settings
steady, the euro could be sensitive to changes in the bank"s
economic forecasts or any signal that the pace of bond buying
could be reduced in months ahead.
In crypto markets, bitcoin held gains from its
biggest rally in four months on Wednesday, when it jumped nearly
12%.
It last traded largely unchanged at $36,709.67, after
rebounding from a three-week low of $31,025 hit on Tuesday when
signs of institutional investor caution and regulatory attention
drove selling.
The best-known digital token has struggled since reaching a
record $64,895.22 in mid-April.
"It was looking pretty dicey," but "bitcoin has impressively
held onto $33,700," wrote Pepperstone"s Weston.
"It needs to push into $39,460 and the top of the recent
range to really attract, but we will need to see a break here
for the bulls to feel we’re out of this period of
vulnerability."
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Currency bid prices at 0545 GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar $1.2164 $1.2179 -0.10% -0.43% +1.2181 +1.2163
Dollar/Yen 109.5600 109.6450 -0.06% +6.09% +109.6750 +109.5400
Euro/Yen
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