TREASURIES-10-year yield stalls below 1.5%; reverse repo hits another record

  • 6/23/2021
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(Updates with Bowman, Bostic comments, auction) By David Randall NEW YORK, June 23 (Reuters) - Ten-year Treasury yields inched higher but remained below 1.5% in muted trading on Wednesday, one day after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirmed in congressional testimony the central bank"s view that rising inflation will likely be temporary. "We will not raise interest rates pre-emptively because we fear the possible onset of inflation. We will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances," Powell said in a hearing before a U.S. House of Representatives panel. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic echoed the central bank"s sentiment that high inflation will be temporary as the economy settles back to normal after the coronavirus pandemic, though above-average inflation may last longer than originally thought. "Temporary is going to be a little longer than we expected initially. ... Rather than it being two to three months, it may be six to nine months," Bostic said in an interview on National Public Radio"s "Morning Edition." At their meeting last week, Fed officials surprised many market participants with a more hawkish tone and suggested that the central bank may raise interest rates as soon as 2023. The yield curve - a measure of expectations of the economy"s direction - was little changed. The spread between 5- and 30-year Treasury yields rose to 122.90 basis points, well above the 107.80 that it hit Monday. The Fed"s policy stance will likely not change until its Jackson Hole, Wyoming, meeting in late August, leaving Treasury yields in a narrow trading range, analysts said. "Absent much volatility on Fed rhetoric or even volatility in Treasuries, technicals are set to remain in focus in the interim," said Daniel Krieter, director of fixed income strategy at BMO Capital Markets. The Treasury auctioned $61 billion in five-year notes Wednesday afternoon with a yield of 0.904%, the highest since February 2020. The Fed"s reverse repurchase window took in a record $813.6 billion in cash from 73 counterparties, a sign investors see few attractive options available in a low-yield environment. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.4869%, while shorter-term 2-year yields edged higher to 0.2621%. Long duration 30-year Treasury yields inched up to 2.1104%. Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.045 0.0456 0.003 Six-month bills 0.05 0.0507 0.000 Two-year note 99-186/256 0.2621 0.011 Three-year note 99-96/256 0.4617 0.019 Five-year note 99-94/256 0.8813 0.024 Seven-year note 100-16/256 1.2405 0.022 10-year note 101-68/256 1.4869 0.015 20-year bond 103-108/256 2.0398 0.008 30-year bond 105-216/256 2.1104 0.005 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 6.25 -0.75 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 9.50 1.00 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 7.25 1.00 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap -3.00 0.50 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -32.50 1.25 spread (Reporting by David Randall; editing by Jonathan Oatis) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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