TUNIS, June 29 (Reuters) - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said on Tuesday it expects the Tunisian economy to grow by 2.7% of GDP this year, but recovery will depend on a COVID-19 vaccination rollout, economic reforms and the vital tourism sector. Tunisia had forecast growth of 3.9% this year after the economy shrank by 8.8% in 2020, but the rapid spread of the coronavirus is pointing to another bad tourist season as foreigners desert the country’s beaches. Tunisia’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 3% in the first quarter of 2021 from a year ago. “The strength of the recovery will also depend on the pace of vaccination against COVID-19, allowing the reopening of the economy, including the tourism sector,” the bank said. It added that a strong and sustainable recovery will depend on economic reform, however, while fiscal tightening is expected to rein in the strength of any upswing. Tunisia, which posted a fiscal deficit of 11.4% of output last year, has started talks with the International Monetary Fund on a package of financial assistance. Reporting By Tarek Amara; Editing by Kirsten Donovan Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.