UPDATE 2-Canadian economy slides in April and May, but summer rebound expected

  • 6/30/2021
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(Adds analyst comments) OTTAWA, June 30 (Reuters) - Canada’s economy sputtered in April and May amid lockdowns to slow a third wave of COVID-19, but the decline was not as bad as expected, data showed on Wednesday, and economists foresee a summer bump as businesses reopen. Canada’s real gross domestic product decreased 0.3% in April from March, beating analyst estimates of a decline of 0.8%, while May GDP was most likely down 0.3%, Statistics Canada said. The May number is a preliminary estimate. Retail trade, accommodation and food services declined in April, as high-contact sectors bore the brunt of business closures aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus. “The good news ... is that, with a reopening already underway across many regions of the country, those businesses should be the ones leading the economy higher this summer,” Royce Mendes, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note. Real estate fell in April for the first time since October 2020, as some of the frenzy in Canada’s housing market eased. Real estate also contributed to May’s expected decline, Statscan said. Construction activity increased in April, as residential building construction offset a decline in home improvements and renovations, though construction was seen down in May. Statscan said total economic activity remains at about 1% below pre-pandemic levels. The April and May data, along with an upward revision to March’s results, show the third wave did not hit the economy as hard as had been anticipated, Stephen Brown, chief Canada economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. That means quarterly GDP is likely to be just “marginally weaker” than the Bank of Canada’s expectations, which suggests “the Bank will continue to taper its asset purchases at the next meeting in July,” said Brown. The Canadian dollar steadied at about 1.2380 per U.S. dollar, or 80.78 U.S. cents, up 0.2% on the day. (Reporting by Julie Gordon in Ottawa, additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto; Editing by Toby Chopra, Steve Orlofsky and Jonathan Oatis) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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