Yuan rebounds from week low, strength vs FX basket keeps gains in check

  • 7/5/2021
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SHANGHAI, July 5 (Reuters) - China"s yuan rebounded on Monday from a more than one-week low against the dollar hit the previous session, as prospects for an earlier rise in U.S. interest rates softened. But gains in the yuan were capped as investors became wary that its strength against a basket of currencies of its trading partners could prompt the central bank to roll out measures to curb further gains. Prior to market opening, the People"s Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate at 6.4695 per dollar, 17 pips firmer than the previous fix of 6.4712. In the spot market, onshore yuan opened at 6.4695 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.4628 at midday, 92 pips firmer than the previous late session close on Friday. Some investors became cautious and refrained from betting on further strength in the Chinese currency. The yuan"s performance against its rivals, as measured by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) index continued to hover around 98, a level many see as the ceiling for the index. A strong yuan will be a disadvantage for China"s exports. Li Liuyang, chief currency analyst at China Merchants Bank, attributed the stronger CFETS index to relatively smaller declines in the yuan than in other non-dollar currencies. The CFETS index stood at 97.99 on Monday, down from Friday"s 98.21, according to Reuters calculations based on official data. Several traders said markets will shift their focus to minutes from the Federal Reserve"s June meeting due on Wednesday for clues on policymakers" thinking over the timing to pare back stimulus. Carie Li, economist at OCBC Wing Hang Bank, said the dollar could remain as the key factor influencing the yuan"s movements. "Unless the U.S. dollar rises sharply, the USD/CNY may continue to fluctuate in the range of 6.45 to 6.50," she said in a note. By midday, the global dollar index stood at 92.342, while the offshore yuan was trading at 6.4649 per dollar. The yuan market at 0400 GMT: ONSHORE SPOT: Item Current Previous Change PBOC midpoint 6.4695 6.4712 0.03% Spot yuan 6.4628 6.472 0.14% Divergence from -0.10% midpoint* Spot change YTD 1.01% Spot change since 2005 28.06% revaluation Key indexes: Item Current Previous Change Thomson 98.06 98.04 0.0 Reuters/HKEX CNH index Dollar index 92.342 92.311 0.0 *Divergence of the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number indicates that spot yuan is trading stronger than the midpoint. The People"s Bank of China (PBOC) allows the exchange rate to rise or fall 2% from official midpoint rate it sets each morning. OFFSHORE CNH MARKET Instrument Current Difference from onshore Offshore spot yuan 6.4649 -0.03% * Offshore 6.6324 -2.46% non-deliverable forwards ** *Premium for offshore spot over onshore **Figure reflects difference from PBOC"s official midpoint, since non-deliverable forwards are settled against the midpoint. . (Reporting by Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith; Editing by Jacqueline Wong) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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