TREASURIES-Treasury yields continue fall on economic jitters

  • 7/7/2021
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(Updates prices; adds Fed minutes) By Chuck Mikolajczak NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields continued on their downward trajectory on Wednesday, with 10-year yields on track for a seventh straight session of declines on worries the economic recovery may be softening while investors assessed the minutes from the Federal Reserve"s June meeting for clues to its policy path. The streak of declines for the 10-year note is the longest since a nine-session drop that ended on March 3, 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. was gaining speed. Recent data on the labor market and services sector has given investors pause that the economy may not be strengthening as initially anticipated and some underlying weakness may be emerging. On Wednesday, the Labor Department said job openings edged up in May while hiring dipped, indicating the economy continues to struggle with labor shortages. Analysts also pointed to volatility in the oil market, where crude had a run-up in price until faltering on Tuesday after OPEC producers canceled a meeting, and worries about the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus contributed to the risk-off environment. Also cited for the decline were a market that had been largely positioned short and a break on Tuesday of technical support levels on the 10-year. "It’s a little bit of all of those from short squeeze, Delta variants, lack of supply, asset liability and historical tapering meaning lower yields," said Eric Souza, senior portfolio manager at SVB Asset Management. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 4.9 basis points to 1.321% after earlier falling as low as 1.296%, the lowest level since Feb. 19. "We broke 1.3% twice this morning at a couple of levels. When it hit those levels it bounced. ... Holding at this 1.30 handle is a bet the markets are probably going to want to see," said Souza. Minutes from the Fed"s June 15-16 meeting showed central bank officials believed "substantial further progress" on the economic recovery had not yet been met, but agreed they needed to be prepared to act should inflation or other risks emerge. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at 110.4 basis points after flattening to as little as 107.3, the narrowest since Feb 12. Market players said the 10-year yield"s breach below 1.40% had been crucial in attracting more bond buyers as that was the level where many had hedged their "reflation" bets. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 6.3 basis points to 1.940% after falling to a low of 1.918%, its lowest since Feb. 11. July 7 Wednesday 2:33PM New York / 1833 GMT Price US T BONDS SEP1 163-9/32 1-6/32 10YR TNotes SEP1 133-136/256 0-80/256 Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.0525 0.0532 0.000 Six-month bills 0.055 0.0558 0.003 Two-year note 99-210/256 0.2161 -0.006 Three-year note 99-144/256 0.4 -0.011 Five-year note 100-112/256 0.7852 -0.024 Seven-year note 101-8/256 1.0961 -0.036 10-year note 102-204/256 1.3213 -0.049 30-year bond 109-208/256 1.9404 -0.063 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 8.00 0.00 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 11.75 0.00 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 8.00 0.75 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap -2.00 0.50 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -30.50 1.00 spread (Additional reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Toby Chopra and Leslie Adler) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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