Yuan inches up despite weaker-than-expected midpoint guidance

  • 7/7/2021
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SHANGHAI, July 7 (Reuters) - The yuan inched higher against the dollar on Wednesday as tighter cash conditions offset a weaker-than-expected official guidance rate, which some traders felt signaled authorities" unease over the Chinese currency"s strength. Moves were limited, however, as investors anxiously awaited the minutes from the Federal Reserve"s latest meeting for more clues on the dollar"s outlook. Prior to the market opening, the People"s Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate at 6.4762 per dollar, 149 pips or 0.23% weaker than the previous fix of 6.4613. Traders and analysts said the official midpoint came in much weaker than their projections, and it was 54 pips softer than Reuters" estimate of 6.4708 per dollar. Some market participants speculated that the much weakened guidance could curb the fast gains in yuan"s value against a basket of currencies. The basket index has persistently hovered around the 98 level and is not far from its three-year high. In the spot market, onshore yuan opened at 6.4778 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.4716 at midday, 72 pips firmer than the previous late session close. Despite the weaker midpoint, the yuan gained support from signs of tightness in the interbank markets, according to several currency traders. The PBOC has maintained its prudent stance by offering zero liquidity injection on a net basis via open market operations, but an additional 70 billion yuan ($10.82 billion) worth of cash deposits were set to expire on Wednesday, draining cash from the banking system. Strategists at OCBC Bank expected onshore liquidity may be "on the tight side near-term", while higher local government bond issuance could also weigh on liquidity conditions. Higher domestic rates and falling U.S. yields have pushed the interest rate gap between China"s 10-year government bonds and their U.S. counterparts to the widest level since March. A wider yield gap usually attracts capital inflows that support the yuan. However, the yuan remained stuck in a thin range against the dollar since an unexpected hawkish tilt from the Fed"s June policy meeting. Marco Sun, chief financial market analyst at MUFG Bank, said that showed the market was "waiting for a signal that could be used to determine that the PBOC would adjust its monetary policy". Sun expected the yuan to trade in a range of 6.45 to 6.48 per dollar in the near term. The Fed minutes due later in the session could offer more insights into U.S. policymakers" thinking over a timeframe for paring back stimulus. By midday, the global dollar index stood at 92.529, while the offshore yuan was trading at 6.4735 per dollar. The yuan market at 0402 GMT: ONSHORE SPOT: Item Current Previous Change PBOC midpoint 6.4762 6.4613 -0.23% Spot yuan 6.4716 6.4788 0.11% Divergence from -0.07% midpoint* Spot change YTD 0.88% Spot change since 2005 27.89% revaluation Key indexes: Item Current Previous Change Thomson 98.13 98.02 0.1 Reuters/HKEX CNH index Dollar index 92.529 92.539 0.0 *Divergence of the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number indicates that spot yuan is trading stronger than the midpoint. The People"s Bank of China (PBOC) allows the exchange rate to rise or fall 2% from official midpoint rate it sets each morning. OFFSHORE CNH MARKET Instrument Current Difference from onshore Offshore spot yuan 6.4735 -0.03% * Offshore 6.63 -2.32% non-deliverable forwards ** *Premium for offshore spot over onshore **Figure reflects difference from PBOC"s official midpoint, since non-deliverable forwards are settled against the midpoint. . ($1 = 6.4698 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith; Editing by Kim Coghill) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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