EMERGING MARKETS-Mexico's peso leads Latam FX gains, real lags this week

  • 7/9/2021
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* Brazil"s real down nearly 4% this week * MSCI Latam stocks down 4% this week * China rate cut could be negative signal -analyst By Ambar Warrick July 9 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies recovered from recent losses on Friday but were set to end the week lower on turbulent commodity markets and concerns over Chinese economic growth. Chile"s peso rose 0.9%, tracking higher copper prices, after major importer China cut the amount of cash that banks need to hold to boost an economic recovery. But China"s move to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) raised broader questions over the pace of an economic recovery in the country, given that it has so far led a post-COVID economic bounce. Iris Pang, ING"s chief economist, Greater China, questioned whether the cut implied that Chinese banks were under pressure from bad loans. "If bank troubles spread to the real economy, both the RRR and interest rates may need to be cut... This surprise could be read as a negative signal about how the economy is doing." An economic slowdown in China would be negative for Latin America, given the region"s large dependence on China as a destination for agriculture and mining exports. Chile"s peso was on track to lose nearly 2% this week. MSCI"s index of Latin American currencies rose 0.5% on Friday, but was set to lose 2.8% this week- its worst performance in more than three months. The bulk of the losses in index could be attributed to Brazil"s real, which was the worst-performing emerging market currency this week, with a near-4% drop. The real did not trade on account of a holiday on Friday. Growing concerns over political unrest in the country have detracted from the real"s appeal. Two polls on Thursday showed President Jair Bolsonaro"s disapproval ratings rose to the highest level since he came to power 2-1/2 years ago, amid growing discontent over his administration"s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Mexico"s peso rose about 0.5% against the dollar, but was set to lose 0.7% for the week. Wild swings in oil prices, after the breakdown of OPEC talks, hampered the currency through the week. Rising COVID-19 infections also threatened to quell a fledgling economic recovery in the country. Latin American stocks rose in early trade, tracking a broader recovery in global markets after steep losses through the week. MSCI"s index of regional stocks was set to lose 4% this week, its worst week in more than four months. Argentine markets were closed for a holiday. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies: Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1318.27 0.15 MSCI LatAm 2511.22 0.79 Mexico IPC 49715.02 0.29 Chile IPSA 4230.01 1 Colombia COLCAP 1290.08 0.47 Currencies Latest Daily % change Mexico peso 19.8931 0.51 Chile peso 746.13 0.85 Colombia peso 3837 0.00 Peru sol 3.9536 -0.14 (Reporting by Ambar Warrick; Editing by Dan Grebler) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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