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* Traders say CPI surprises either side can move USD
* Major moves slight ahead of the data due at 1230 GMT
* EUR at $1.1868, JPY at 110.37 per dollar
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, July 13 (Reuters) - Currency markets were on edge
and the dollar a few ticks lower on Tuesday, ahead of U.S.
inflation data which traders think could offer clues about the
timing of tapering and rate hikes.
The possibility of hikes - brought to the fore by a surprise
shift in tone last month from the Federal Reserve - has boosted
the dollar in recent weeks as investors have re-assessed their
assumption of prolonged low U.S. rates.
Against the euro the greenback inched a fraction
lower during the Asia session to $1.1868, though that still has
the dollar up about 2.2% on the common currency in a month.
Aside from looming U.S. inflation data, further moves in the
euro were kept in check by comments on Monday from European
Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who flagged a dovish
change in forward guidance.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. consumer price
index to have risen 0.5% from May and 4.9% from a year earlier.
Dealers reckon a miss on either side could move the greenback
and the bond market by shifting expectations on interest rates.
"My back-of-the-envelope playbook is that we"d need a
headline year-on-year number north of 5.5% to really set this
market ablaze," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker
Pepperstone, saying that could lift bond yields and the dollar.
"A number below 4.5% on the headline print and we should see
USD/JPY and USD/CHF under pressure," he said.
Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes similarly sees risks
to the dollar on the downside, and expects a bigger reaction -
boosting the yen - if inflation does indeed fall short and
investors reckon easy policy can last a bit longer.
The data is due at 1230 GMT.
In Asia the Japanese currency last stood at 110.37
per dollar. The Swiss franc was steady at 0.9146 per
dollar, close to a one-month high. The Australian dollar
rose slightly to $0.7491 and sterling was up 0.1% at
$1.3895.
POWELL, RBNZ AHEAD
Beyond inflation, further tests loom for the dollar from
forthcoming appearances by Federal Reserve officials with
markets hyper sensitive to any talk of early tapering.
Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress on Wednesday
and Thursday while officials Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic and
Eric Rosengren make appearances on Tuesday.
Traders are also looking to New Zealand on Wednesday, when
inflation data is due and the central bank meets for the first
time since a strong business survey prompted swaps markets to
price in rate hikes beginning as soon as November.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is not expected to change
policy or publish forecasts, but a guidance tweak is possible.
"The narrative should endorse current market pricing,"
Westpac analyst Imre Speizer said in a note, a move which he
said could give the kiwi a slight lift. "Our hawkish scenario (a
25% chance we think) comprises an implicit signal that
tightening could start at any time over the next few meetings."
The New Zealand dollar was last up 0.1% at $0.6993,
just below its 20-day moving average.
Elsewhere, China"s yuan rose to a near one-week high after
surprisingly strong trade data eased fears about a slowdown in
what has been the world"s strongest economic recovery.
It last traded at 6.4655 per dollar.
The U.S dollar index was steady at 92.222.
Cryptocurrencies came under pressure, with bitcoin
down 1% at $32,789 and ether having fallen below its
200-day moving average to $1,990.
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Currency bid prices at 553 GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar $1.1863 $1.1860 +0.02% -2.91% +1.1875 +1.1859
Dollar/Yen 110.4200 110.3600 +0.06% +6.91% +110.4400 +110.2950
Euro/Yen
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