TREASURIES-U.S. yields skid on growth worries; Fed policy update looms

  • 7/27/2021
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(Adds new comment, U.S. 5-year note auction results; updates prices) * U.S. 5-year note auction was decent * Fed seen holding monetary policy steady * U.S. 10-year yield may have seen floor -analyst By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, July 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields tumbled on Tuesday as risk appetite continued to languish amid lingering concerns about high inflation and the fast-spreading Delta coronavirus variant that could thwart global economic growth. Investors are also cautious, with the U.S. Federal Reserve"s two-day monetary policy meeting underway. Analysts said the Fed, which began its meeting on Tuesday, is likely to stand pat on monetary policy but could discuss plans for tapering its asset purchases during its Jackson Hole, Wyoming, gathering in August. Tuesday"s U.S. 5-year note sale showed decent results overall, but not as strong as initially expected, especially with the rally in Treasuries going into the auction. The high yield was 0.710%, slightly lower than the when-issued or expected rate of 0.711% at the bid deadline. The bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, was 2.36, the same as last month, but below what analysts said was the 2.40 average. The yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) plunged to a record low of -1.147% for a second straight session as investors bought TIPS on concerns about the prospect of steeper consumer prices going forward. The yield was last at -1.117%. U.S. durable goods disappointed expectations, rising 0.8% compared with forecasts for a 2.1% rise. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, were also slightly below forecasts, climbing 0.5% last month, compared with expectations for a 0.7% increase. "With the increased uncertainty from China and the Delta variant, the markets are taking a breather from last week’s reversal on rates and equity prices," said Ellis Phifer, managing director of fixed income at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee. U.S. 10-year yields were on an uptrend for most of last week. "Maybe it"s the pause that refreshes. The bond market is currently in a bullish trend with lower highs and lower lows in yields," Phifer added. In early afternoon trading, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slid to 1.239% from 1.276% late on Monday. "It looks like we have made a floor after tumbling from 1.75% in the U.S. 10-year. But it"s hard to get very excited yet," said Stan Shipley, fixed income strategist at Evercore ISI in New York. "When we were at 1.75%, that bear trade is very crowded and there are still some people that need to unwind that trade," he added. U.S. 30-year yields dropped to 1.896% from Monday"s 1.925%. Post-auction, U.S. 5-year note yields were down at 0.697% , from Monday"s 0.713%. The 5-year auction has been on investors" radar, with the note reflecting market sentiment about Wednesday"s Fed statement and the press briefing from Chairman Jerome Powell. The U.S. 5-year note has come to reflect market views on Fed monetary policy. The yield curve, another gauge of risk sentiment, flattened on Tuesday to 102.4 basis points, as measured by the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields. The curve had steepened in the five previous sessions. July 27 Tuesday 1:50PM New York / 1750 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.05 0.0507 0.000 Six-month bills 0.05 0.0507 -0.002 Two-year note 99-213/256 0.2094 -0.007 Three-year note 100-6/256 0.3671 -0.008 Five-year note 100-222/256 0.6955 -0.017 Seven-year note 101-178/256 0.996 -0.029 10-year note 103-140/256 1.2394 -0.037 20-year bond 107-68/256 1.8116 -0.032 30-year bond 110-216/256 1.8969 -0.028 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 6.50 -2.00 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 10.25 -0.75 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 8.50 -0.25 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 0.25 0.25 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -27.75 -0.25 spread (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Dan Grebler) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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