EMERGING MARKETS-Growth, virus worries weigh on equities; China shares rally

  • 8/9/2021
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* JPM, Morgan Stanley, Goldman cut China GDP growth forecast * China stocks rally on loose monetary policy hopes * Turkish lira flat, cenbank decision on Thursday Aug 9 (Reuters) - Chinese stocks rallied on Monday on hopes of an easing in monetary policy but failed to bolster the emerging market share index, which was pressured by concerns over slowing global growth and rising coronavirus cases. MSCI’s index of emerging market stocks fell about 0.1%, with losses in tech shares hitting Taiwan and South Korea. Shares in Turkey, Russia, Poland, meanwhile, gained between 0.1% and 0.5%. A bigger-than-expected jump in China’s factory gate inflation, slowing exports, tightening business regulations and worries about the rising number of coronavirus cases prompted JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to cut their growth forecast for the world’s second-biggest economy. JPMorgan lowered its third-quarter GDP growth forecast for China to 6.7% year-on-year from 7.4% previously. Its full-year China growth forecast for 2021 was now 8.9% from 9.1% previously, it said in a note. Bets on policy easing to spur growth rose after the release of data, sending China’s blue-chip shares up 1.3%. “Economic prospects for China – and indeed for other large emerging markets – have soured in a way that few thought likely,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist of Capital Economics. “EM growth has averaged 4% a year (in the last five years excluding 2020) and returns on EM equities have been half those of their developed market counterparts ... many of the structural headwinds that we anticipated five years ago have already begun to build – and there’s so far little sign of policymakers changing course.” Among currencies, MSCI’s index of EM currencies was down 0.1%. While many EM central banks have already adopted a hawkish stance to stave off inflation, markets were a bit jolted last week when top U.S. Federal Reserve officials hinted that U.S. stimulus tapering might be coming sooner than expected. Loose monetary policy by major central banks has helped riskier emerging market assets tide over the course of the pandemic. Turkey’s lira was flat against the dollar after hitting one-month lows earlier in the session. All eyes are on the central bank meeting on Thursday. The bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at 19% even as inflation surges as much, with the decision complicated by President Tayyip Erdogan who last week said the benchmark interest rate would be lowered. Russia’s rouble was up marginally against the greenback, while the Czech crown and Polish zloty firmed about 0.1% against the euro. South African markets were closed for a local holiday. For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2021, see tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2021, see tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX For TOP NEWS across emerging markets For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see For TURKISH market report, see For RUSSIAN market report, see (Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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