JAKARTA, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Indonesia"s trade surplus is expected to show an expansion in July after the government imposed mobility restrictions to control a spike in COVID-19 cases, squeezing exports and imports, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. Southeast Asia"s biggest economy has been enjoying an export boom on the back of high commodity prices, allowing for a trade surplus every month since May of 2020. The median forecast of 10 analysts in the poll was for a July trade surplus of $2.27 billion, up from the previous month"s $1.32 billion. Export growth of 30.20%, on an annual basis, was forecast. While high commodity prices still supported shipments, the estimated increase would be the lowest since February and below the more than 50% growth rate recorded between April to June. Imports were seen shrinking on a monthly basis, but up 52.15% annually due to a low base effect. "We expect a wider trade surplus from the previous month as imports recede following the July lockdowns in Java," analysts with Citi Indonesia said. Some economists have said high commodity prices and a global economic recovery will likely allow resource-rich Indonesia to book big export earnings for the remainder of the year, but imports may take a hit as COVID-19 curbs imposed since July dampen domestic demand.
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