The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is far from over, but it is clear that it will have a long-term impact on the world. Past pandemics offer clues to how the outbreak might affect the future. Throughout human history, pandemics have led to huge changes. The Black Death plague significantly contributed to ending feudalism in Europe. The mass deaths of native populations in the Americas thanks to illnesses imported from Europe prompted the Little Ice Age beginning in the 14th century. Pandemics have affected the outcomes of wars and shaped empires. History suggests that COVID-19 also will have a major impact, although this is likely to be more muted. The world’s population is many times larger today, and, thanks to modern medicine and other technologies, the coronavirus pandemic is unlikely to wipe out a large percentage compared with some previous pandemics. The 1918 influenza pandemic, which came in waves from spring 1918 to the middle of 1919 and possibly into 1920, offers the most relevant lessons for today. It was the last pandemic on a scale comparable to COVID-19. It was global and killed 50 million or more people — an enormous impact on a world with a 1.8 billion population. There are many important differences between the 1918 flu and today’s pandemic. They are different viruses. Large parts of the world in 1918 were at war, and many other areas were colonized. Medical science had germ theory but very little knowledge of viruses and no antibiotics, and many people, even in industrialized countries, had no access to modern medical treatments. Today’s death tolls, as a proportion of the population, look much smaller, with more than 4 million deaths, to date, in a global population of more than 7.8 billion. While acknowledging significant differences, the 1918 flu pandemic still offers helpful insights into how COVID-19 might change the world. Most directly, pandemics change medicine. The 1918 flu significantly contributed to the field of virology, as well as helping scientists to develop tests and vaccines for influenza years later. The pandemic helped to advance the field of epidemiology. Critically, many governments responded to the pandemic by creating national healthcare systems, giving many people access to modern medicine for the first time. While the pandemic led to advancements in modern medicine, it also sparked skepticism about medical science and prompted increased interest in alternative medicine approaches. The current pandemic already has led to the creation of the first approved mRNA vaccines and is likely to lead to other medical advances, while it also has prompted skepticism about vaccines and disinformation about COVID-19 treatments. The 1918 pandemic directly and indirectly led to demographic changes. In many countries, it killed significant proportions of the population. However, after the pandemic and the war, many countries saw baby booms. So far, COVID-19 appears to be accelerating pre-existing demographic trends, by reducing birth rates in higher-income countries, while potentially increasing them in lower-income countries. It remains to be seen whether this will continue after the pandemic is over. Historically, major pandemics often usher in significant economic changes. The Roaring 20s, an economic boom in the US that followed both the war and the pandemic, is a famous example. After the 1918 pandemic, some countries experienced economic recoveries, but others continued to suffer for multiple reasons, sometimes including particularly high death tolls. Economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic also is likely to be uneven. There also will be changes in economic and business trends. The current pandemic is having an enormous impact on women’s role in the workforce. Businesses are reconsidering a number of practices, including telework, online retail, travel and the risks of just-in-time supply chains. Pandemics often have wide-reaching political effects. They can kill or incapacitate leaders at key moments, as the flu pandemic likely did with US President Woodrow Wilson when the post-war global structure was in flux. They can shift power balances between states and damage countries’ reputations. The 1918 pandemic increased political tensions, highlighted inequalities and demonstrated the incompetence of many governments. These factors added fuel that strengthened independence and revolutionary movements, particularly anti-colonial movements in countries such as India, Egypt and Korea. Today, polls suggest that the pandemic has increased divisions in many countries, including the US and much of Europe. It has exacerbated inequalities within and between countries. While the 1918 flu was one of multiple factors that contributed to anti-colonial movements, the pandemic today will contribute to other drivers of change in global political structures. The coronavirus will certainly have a long-lasting effect on medicine, society, the global economy and politics — as well as on the individuals who have experienced this period of history. Kerry Boyd Anderson Beyond changes in medicine, science, demographics, economics and politics, pandemics have long-lasting psychological impacts on societies and individuals. In addition to grief for those who died, there is evidence that previous pandemics have contributed to widespread depression, fatigue and malaise. Dark feelings shared by many individuals and expressed through art and literature can reflect both the trauma of experiencing a pandemic as well as lingering post-viral health complications. On the other hand, post-pandemic periods also can experience ground-breaking trends in social, religious, philosophical and artistic expression and debate. Pandemics can elicit both melancholy and surges in energy and creativity. It is too early to predict exactly how COVID-19 will change the world. Its impact is likely to be considerably less than the Black Death or the 1918 flu. However, the coronavirus will certainly have a long-lasting effect on medicine, society, the global economy and politics — as well as on the individuals who have experienced this period of history. Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 16 years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Twitter: @KBAresearch Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view