CORRECTED-TREASURIES-Yields rise with Powell, five-year auction in focus

  • 8/25/2021
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0 MIN READ (Corrects breakeven inflation rate in eighth paragraph from morning report) By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, Aug 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose to almost two-week highs on Wednesday, with an impending Friday speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seen as this week’s main event and ahead of a Treasury sale of new five-year notes. Powell will speak virtually at the Fed’s annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors are focused on whether Powell will drop any fresh hints on when the U.S. central bank is likely to begin paring bond purchases and if he expresses new concerns about the spread of the Delta COVID variant. Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan, among the U.S. central bank"s most forceful supporters for starting to reduce support for the economy, said on Friday he may need to adjust that view if the coronavirus slows economic growth materially. “Following Kaplan’s well-timed comments on his openness to a later taper if Delta weighs on growth, the presumed likelihood that Powell errs toward dovishness has gone up, leaving the risk of a modest hawkish surprise if he doesn’t,” Jonathan Cohn, a trading strategist at Credit Suisse said in a report. Minutes from the Fed"s July meeting released last Wednesday showed that the bulk of the U.S. central bank"s policy-setting committee expect the Fed will start trimming its bond-buying program later this year, though consumer sentiment and economic data have weakened since the July meeting. Data on Wednesday showed that new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods were steady in July, but an acceleration in shipments suggested business investment in equipment could offset an anticipated slowdown in consumer spending and keep the economy on a solid growth path in the third quarter. Benchmark 10-year yields rose five basis points to 1.337%, the highest since August 13. Breakeven inflation rates on five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) also rose to 2.52%, from 2.49% late on Tuesday. "The theme running through the markets today is that the Fed is behind the inflation curve," Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities said in a report. That said, "markets can be pushed more easily in low liquidity weeks, which this is clearly one of those," he added. The Treasury will sell $61 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday, the second sale of $183 billion in short and intermediate-dated supply this week. The government saw strong demand for a $60 billion auction of two-year notes on Tuesday. It will also sell $62 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday. The five-year note yields were last up three basis points on the day at 0.821%. Investors were weighing the prospect of higher fiscal spending after the Democratic-controlled U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday approved a $3.5 trillion budget framework to advance progressives" ambitious plans to expand child care and other social programs, and agreed to vote by Sept. 27 on a $1 trillion Senate-passed infrastructure bill that is a top priority for moderate Democrats. However, “the market showed little reaction to yesterday"s legislative developments…illustrating both the uncertain and long-term nature of such legislation and importance of other factors on the calendar, namely delta variant restrictions and Jackson Hole meetings later this week,” Daniel Krieter and Daniel Belton, analysts at BMO Capital Markets said in a report on Wednesday. August 25 Wednesday 11:05AM New York / 1505 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.05 0.0507 -0.007 Six-month bills 0.05 0.0507 0.000 Two-year note 99-193/256 0.2484 -0.001 Three-year note 99-194/256 0.4572 0.010 Five-year note 99-14/256 0.8211 0.029 Seven-year note 99-64/256 1.1127 0.039 10-year note 99-48/256 1.3373 0.047 20-year bond 97-252/256 1.8715 0.044 30-year bond 101-44/256 1.9482 0.041 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 8.00 -1.50 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 11.00 0.75 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 8.75 0.50 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 1.00 0.25 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -28.25 0.75 spread (Editing by Bernadette Baum)

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