TREASURIES-Yields rise, curve steepens in choppy market

  • 8/31/2021
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(New throughout, updates yields; adds analyst comments, reverse repo volume) By Karen Pierog CHICAGO, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Month-end effects roiled U.S. Treasury market trading on Tuesday, leaving yields higher and the curve steeper despite waves of buying. The benchmark 10-year yield, which rose as high as 1.314%, was last up 2.5 basis points at 1.3088%. Following a burst of morning buying related to month-end portfolio rebalancing, the market had a "rubber band reaction once those flows went away" that pushed yields higher, according to Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Management. He added there appeared to be a subsequent wave of afternoon buying by funds. A report by the Conference Board that its U.S. consumer confidence index dropped unexpectedly to a six-month low had sent yields a touch lower earlier in the session. Ben Jeffery, an interest rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said it was "a data point that represents the influence of the rising pandemic uncertainty this month." The market will watch Friday"s release of August U.S. employment data for clues future Federal Reserve policy moves. "The jobs reports are going to be absolutely critical this month, next month, the following month, because that has so much influence over the path of the Fed"s tapering and eventual rate hikes," said Bill Merz, chief fixed income strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. In a speech to the annual, but virtual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economic conference on Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said if job growth continues, the central bank could cut its $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities this year. Economists polled by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls increased by 750,000 in August and forecast a dip in the jobless rate to 5.2% from 5.4% in July. The amount of cash flowing into the Fed"s reverse repurchase facility hit a record-high of nearly $1.190 trillion on Tuesday. The five-year note yield, which is more sensitive to intermediate interest rate hikes, was last up less than a basis point at 0.7771%. A closely watched part of the yield curve that measures the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes was last 2.65 basis points steeper at 110 basis points. The gap between five-year notes and 30-year bonds also grew. It was last about 2 basis points steeper at 114.60 basis points. August 31 Tuesday 3:58PM New York / 1958 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.045 0.0456 -0.005 Six-month bills 0.0575 0.0583 0.000 Two-year note 99-214/256 0.2074 0.004 Three-year note 99-236/256 0.4016 0.003 Five-year note 99-222/256 0.7771 0.006 Seven-year note 100-68/256 1.0855 0.016 10-year note 99-116/256 1.3088 0.025 20-year bond 98-100/256 1.8468 0.024 30-year bond 101-172/256 1.9263 0.027 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 9.00 -0.25 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 12.25 0.00 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 8.75 0.00 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 1.25 -0.25 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -27.50 -0.75 spread (Reporting by Karen Pierog; editing by Jonathan Oatis and David Gregorio) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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