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PRAGUE, Aug 31 (Reuters) - The Polish zloty jumped to an
8-week high on Tuesday after data showing inflation accelerated
to a headline rate of 5.4% raised chances the central bank could
start raising interest rates later this year.
Poland"s central bank has yet to follow peers in the Czech
Republic and Hungary who raised rates already in June and have
been in tightening mode since then.
But a larger-than-expected spike in inflation in recent
months has backed the case for a potential rate hike already
coming in November, although the median forecast in a Reuters
poll sees no move until the first quarter of next year.
"Increased inflation, including the high probability of its
further increase to more than 5.5% in December, strengthens our
belief that the (central bank"s) MPC will decide to raise rates
already on the occasion of the November update of (its economic)
projections," ING said.
The zloty reacted on Tuesday with a 0.5% rise to
trade at 4.537 to the euro by 0923 GMT, its highest since early
July.
Other central European currencies also gained with risk
appetite buoyed in global markets by growing confidence in
economic recoveries.
Hungary"s forint, though, underperformed, losing
0.3% and sitting just off multi-week highs that it hit over the
last week.
The Czech crown firmed 0.1% to 25.55 per euro
after revised data showed second-quarter growth was swifter than
first estimated as household consumption was bolstered by easing
coronavirus restrictions.
The data backs the central bank"s (CNB) signals that it
would look to raise interest rates further this year.
Governor Jiri Rusnok said on Aug. 18 the bank would even
debate whether a larger-than-standard 50 basis point hike might
be warranted at its next meeting.
"Today"s data should not imply any change in the current
stance of the CNB," Erste Group Bank said.
"The revision of GDP could have a slight effect in the
direction of a stronger crown. However, this effect will not
probably be significant, as markets expect a hike in September,
and today"s figures are in line with this view."
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