UPDATE 2-Chile central bank hikes GDP growth prediction on spending surge

  • 9/1/2021
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(Adds 2022, 2023 GDP projections, inflation and rates expectations) SANTIAGO, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Chile’s Central Bank on Wednesday revised upwards its predicted growth range for 2021 GDP to 10.5% to 11.5% from a previous estimate of 8.5% to 9.5% amid what it called a “rapid recovery” from a recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The bank said in its quarterly IPOM economic report that it saw short-term inflation continuing to rise because of high levels of consumer spending, a depreciated peso and higher fuel prices. It saw consumer prices averaging 4.2% in 2021, ending the year at 5.7% and remaining above 5% in the first half of 2022, on high food and energy prices, before withdrawal of monetary and fiscal stimulus prompted it to converge on 3% within two years. On Tuesday, the bank doubled the benchmark interest rate to 1.5%. It said it would continue to withdraw monetary stimulus, with the rate returning to a neutral level by mid-2022. The Chilean economy’s recovery had “completely outstripped expectations”, the bank said, attributing it to adaptive measures taken by individuals and companies to stay afloat during the pandemic, a world-class COVID-19 vaccination campaign and the rollout of the most extensive government support measures taken in the face of an external shock. The bank said its upward revision of GDP growth was primarily due to an above-expectations surge in private spending, which was buoyed by the government’s emergency family support (IFE) bonuses and withdrawals from privately held pensions. Although it expected high spending levels to continue into next year, the bank added, the higher base of comparison would mean lower growth, estimated at between 1.5$ and 2.5% for 2022. By 2023, it said it expected the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus to start to bite, seeing growth that year at between 1% and 2%. It lowered its projection for the price of copper, which hit record highs earlier this year on the back of rising demand from China, sparking speculation about a commodities super-cycle, to a more “long-term level.” The central bank now sees copper at $4.15 per pound for 2021 compared with the $4.25 it predicted in June, and settling at $4 per pound in 2022 and $3.70 per pound in 2023. Copper accounts for around half of Chile’s exports. (Reporting by Fabian Cambero and Aislinn Laing; editing by John Stonestreet, Bernadette Baum and Jonathan Oatis) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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