UPDATE 2-Russian cenbank to consider need for rate increase on Sept 10

  • 9/2/2021
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(Adds quotes, inflation forecast) By Andrey Ostroukh MOSCOW, Sept 2 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank will consider the need for a key rate increase at the Sept. 10 meeting, Central Bank Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said on Thursday, reiterating the bank"s wording from its last statement from July. The central bank is expected to raise rates for a fifth time this year later in September to fight stubbornly high inflation amid a swift economic recovery after a 3% contraction in 2020, its sharpest slump in 11 years here. Zabotkin did not say what rate options the bank would consider later this month but said the bank"s rate signal from July, when it raised the key rate sharply by 100 basis points to 6.5%, remains relevant. In July, the central bank said it "will consider the necessity of further key rate increase at its upcoming meetings" if the situation develops in line with the baseline forecast. Inflation has stabilised recently and is on track to start slowing in the fourth quarter, said Zabotkin, presenting a report on Russia"s monetary policy in 2022-2024. As of late August, annual inflation hit a five-year high of 6.79%, which should prompt the Bank of Russia to raise the key rate again by at least 25 basis points, a Reuters poll showed in late August. "The base scenario envisages the average key rate level in the range of 6-7% in 2022, which also envisages the possibility of its further increase from the current level," Zabotkin said. The central bank expects its key interest rate to move into the 5.0-6.0% range in 2023, the monetary policy report said. Annual inflation, the central bank"s main area of responsibility, will slow to 4.0-4.5% in 2022 and to the 4% target in 2023 under its base scenario from 5.7-6.2% this year, the bank said. The central bank also highlighted risks related to the COVID-19 pandemic, global inflation and increased state spending. The central bank"s base scenario looks as follows: 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Inflation, % 4.9 5.7-6.2 4.0-4.5 4.0 4.0 Average key 5.1 5.5-5.8 6.0-7.0 5.0-6.0 5.0-6.0 rate, % GDP, % -3.0 4.0-4.5 2.0-3.0 2.0-3.0 2.0-3.0 (Reporting by Andrey Ostroukh, Anton Kolodyazhnyy, Katya Golubkova, Elena Fabrichnaya, Darya Korsunskaya and Tatiana Voronova; Editing by Edmund Blair and Bernadette Baum) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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