EMERGING MARKETS-Currencies rally as dollar dips on weak U.S. jobs growth

  • 9/3/2021
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* Tax reform in Brazil eyed; narrowing in revenue expected * S.African rand jumps 1% after U.S. non-farm payrolls * EM corporate bond sales scale record high this year - data By Susan Mathew Sept 3 (Reuters) - Emerging market currencies hit 11-week highs on Friday after a sharp slowdown in U.S. jobs growth signaled the Federal Reserve may not rush to taper stimulus, sending South Africa"s rand up 1% while Mexico"s peso touched three-week peaks. MSCI"s index of EM currencies rose 0.3%, putting it on course for its best week this year, while its currency counterpart climbed 0.3%. Data showed U.S. non-farm payrolls increased 235,000 in August versus expectations of 728,000, sending the dollar to one-month lows. The data signaled the labour market in the United States might not yet be in a place where existing stimulus measures, put in place to tide over a coronavirus pandemic induced slump, can be tapered. The generous opening of spigots by major central banks had helped risk appetite as the pandemic squeezed economies. A tapering is expected to impact inflows into risky assets, although market experts say EM economies may be more prepared this time. "We don"t think the report is weak enough for Fed officials to back away from their "this year" tapering signal, especially given the continued strength in wages, but we believe it increases the probability of a formal announcement coming at the December rather than the November meeting," said FX strategists at TD Securities. A Reuters poll showed that Brazil"s real and South Africa"s rand are seen driving volatility in a likely sell-off in EM currencies in the next three months amid tapering fears. But, Brazil"s real will continue to get some aid this year from solid trade surpluses and further interest rate hikes. On Friday, the real currency gave up early gains to trade flat as investors monitored the progress of a likely tax overhaul and a building energy crisis. The central bank said it is "closely monitoring" the rise in electricity prices brought about by a drought. The tax reform bill passed by the lower house this week could see a narrow loss of revenues, the economy ministry said. Analysts worry about the strain on already stretched fiscal spending. Currencies of Mexico and Colombia firmed round 0.2% each, while Chile"s peso extended gains to a sixth straight session and headed for its best week of 2021 at around 2.3% - the best among Latin American peers. Most regional bourses fell as the U.S. data also raised concerns about global growth. Losses in heavy-weight Brazilian banks pushing an index of Latam stocks 0.4% lower. Meanwhile, Refinitiv data showed EM firms flocked to bond markets to cash in on low interest rates and have raised a record amount of money to fund expansion plans. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1444 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1315.76 0.29 MSCI LatAm 2455.76 -0.39 Brazil Bovespa 116500.42 -0.15 Mexico IPC 52036.80 -0.1 Chile IPSA 4436.48 -0.03 Argentina MerVal 75374.00 0.345 Colombia COLCAP 1329.73 -0.16 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.1782 0.05 Mexico peso 19.9127 0.22 Chile peso 764.9 0.42 Colombia peso 3785.03 0.20 Peru sol 4.085 0.12 Argentina peso 97.8600 -0.02 (interbank) (Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Alistair Bell)

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